Inside the numbers: Just how bad KU’s offensive performance was against Texas
Texas defensive end Alex Okafor hovers over Kansas quarterback Jordan Webb following a sack in the third quarter on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
For the second straight week, SBNation national columnist (and friend of the blog) Bill Connelly posted some interesting numbers about the Kansas football team in his mailbag column.
Connelly is a specialist with college football advanced statistics, and earlier this week, he compiled an advanced box score of KU’s 43-0 loss against Texas.
That box score showed that KU’s offense earned -0.8 equivalent points* against Texas — meaning the Jayhawks’ offense would have been better off running a QB sneak every play than running the plays that they did.
* — Equivalent points are a method used by Connelly that gives each yard line a point value based on the average number of points a team can expect to score from that spot on the field. From there, each gain or loss is given a point value based on the change in EqPts.
According to Connelly, an offense earning negative equivalent points has only happened 25 times in the last seven years.
It’s very rare, though, in games between two BCS conference schools; in fact, that feat has only happened four times in games between two BCS schools in the last seven years.
So, if we want to be technical, KU’s offensive effort against Texas was the fourth-worst in the last seven seasons by a BCS school against another BCS school.
Connelly also talked a bit in his mailbag about how poorly KU has played this year, bringing up how the Jayhawks rank last out of all BCS schools (and 113th overall) in the F+ rankings, which are based off both drive and play-by-play data.
Though KU coach Turner Gill would disagree, Connelly says the numbers show KU hasn’t gotten better this season.
“Their current minus-21.0% F/+ rating perfectly matches what they produced last year, meaning there has not been one iota of improvement in Turner Gill’s second season in charge,” Connelly wrote. “Gill played a ton of freshmen and sophomores last year, and those players have not improved as sophomores and juniors. I was not lying when I said ‘Teams don’t collapse out of nowhere like this and immediately rebound with much velocity’ in this summer’s Kansas profile, but it was not unreasonable to expect some sort of improvement. It has not arrived.”
Check out the link at the top for more good info from Connelly, as he also mentions that if KU keeps up its current pace, Gill’s two KU teams will produce two of the six worst season-long performances for a BCS conference team in the last seven years.
Inside the numbers: Just how bad KU’s offensive performance was against Texas
photo by: Nick Krug
Texas defensive end Alex Okafor hovers over Kansas quarterback Jordan Webb following a sack in the third quarter on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2011 at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
For the second straight week, SBNation national columnist (and friend of the blog) Bill Connelly posted some interesting numbers about the Kansas football team in his mailbag column.
Connelly is a specialist with college football advanced statistics, and earlier this week, he compiled an advanced box score of KU’s 43-0 loss against Texas.
That box score showed that KU’s offense earned -0.8 equivalent points* against Texas — meaning the Jayhawks’ offense would have been better off running a QB sneak every play than running the plays that they did.
* — Equivalent points are a method used by Connelly that gives each yard line a point value based on the average number of points a team can expect to score from that spot on the field. From there, each gain or loss is given a point value based on the change in EqPts.
According to Connelly, an offense earning negative equivalent points has only happened 25 times in the last seven years.
It’s very rare, though, in games between two BCS conference schools; in fact, that feat has only happened four times in games between two BCS schools in the last seven years.
So, if we want to be technical, KU’s offensive effort against Texas was the fourth-worst in the last seven seasons by a BCS school against another BCS school.
Connelly also talked a bit in his mailbag about how poorly KU has played this year, bringing up how the Jayhawks rank last out of all BCS schools (and 113th overall) in the F+ rankings, which are based off both drive and play-by-play data.
Though KU coach Turner Gill would disagree, Connelly says the numbers show KU hasn’t gotten better this season.
“Their current minus-21.0% F/+ rating perfectly matches what they produced last year, meaning there has not been one iota of improvement in Turner Gill’s second season in charge,” Connelly wrote. “Gill played a ton of freshmen and sophomores last year, and those players have not improved as sophomores and juniors. I was not lying when I said ‘Teams don’t collapse out of nowhere like this and immediately rebound with much velocity’ in this summer’s Kansas profile, but it was not unreasonable to expect some sort of improvement. It has not arrived.”
Check out the link at the top for more good info from Connelly, as he also mentions that if KU keeps up its current pace, Gill’s two KU teams will produce two of the six worst season-long performances for a BCS conference team in the last seven years.