Recap: Putting preseason rankings in their place
photo by: Nick Krug
Note: Here is a listing of definitions for some terms used in this blog. Also, feel free to ask questions in the comments section below if something doesn’t make sense.
Kansas coach Bill Self had a funny answer the other day following the Jayhawks’ victory over Iowa State in Ames, Iowa.
photo by: Nick Krug
One of the local TV reporters — trying to get a sound bite he could use — asked Self if Iowa State had played like a team that had been picked 12th in the Big 12.
“No,” Self said, giving the Cyclones a compliment before finishing his answer. “Preseason doesn’t mean jack.”
At this point in the season, preseason shouldn’t mean jack.
So let’s look at some facts.
The Jayhawks, following Saturday’s 63-60 victory, have now defeated Iowa State and Nebraska. Preseason tells us those aren’t good wins — hey, those teams were picked 12th and 10th in the Big 12 respectively, right?
http://www2.kusports.com/videos/2011/jan/15/33913/
Without studying the teams, most college basketball fans assume Iowa State is no good and Nebraska is a football school. KU should roll both.
But Baylor … well, Baylor made the Elite Eight last year. The Bears have star power in LaceDarius Dunn and Perry Jones. Monday’s contest is assumed to be the biggest game of the season for KU so far.
But guess what? Iowa State, Nebraska and Baylor all are ranked in the top 50 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings for this year.
Guess which team is last of the three?
Yep, that’s right. It’s Baylor*.
* — ISU is 33rd, NU is 36th and BU is 41st, in case you’re wondering.
Surprised? Remember, preseason doesn’t mean jack right now.
I’m not saying KU’s game at Baylor on Monday will be easy. And I’m also not saying that the Jayhawks shouldn’t have been expected to win by more than three against Nebraska at home.
photo by: Nick Krug
I am saying that no one should frown upon KU picking up two wins against Iowa State and Nebraska to start conference play.
By the end of this season, both teams could very well be in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what their reputations were coming into the season.
M.O.J. (Most Outstanding Jayhawk)
In a close race between Tyrel Reed and Marcus Morris, Reed gets the nod.
photo by: Nick Krug
Reed posted a team-high 1.74 points per possession used, while ending 15.1 percent of KU’s possessions (which is slightly above his season average of 13.9 percent possessions used). When he used a possession, KU scored at least one point 68.8 percent of the time, which was second-best on the team behind Thomas Robinson.
In a game where KU’s guards had trouble holding onto the basketball (Tyshawn Taylor, Josh Selby and Elijah Johnson combined for 10 turnovers), Reed committed no turnovers in a team-high 33 minutes. He also added assists on 20 percent of KU’s made field goals when he was in the game.
Room for Improvement
There are a few ways we could go with this one. But let’s focus on the two biggest problems for KU on Sunday: defensive rebounding and turnovers.
photo by: Nick Krug
Coming in, Nebraska ranked 282nd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, coming away with 28.8 percent of the available offensive rebounds.
On Saturday, the Huskers grabbed 45.2 percent of the offensive rebounds — their highest percentage of the year by 4.3 percent.
Though the Huskers have a big front line, they still shouldn’t have been brought down as many offensive rebounds as they did.
NU also entered as a team that didn’t force many turnovers, ranking 195th in that category (20.3 percent).
photo by: Nick Krug
KU still turned it over on 23.4 percent of its possessions.
The craziest part? The Jayhawks didn’t turn the ball over in the game’s final 17 minutes and still had a turnover percentage that high.
This team’s turnover issues don’t seem to be going away, and Self might have to adjust playing time accordingly if Taylor and Selby don’t start valuing possessions more than they do right now.
Tough-Luck Line
Selby gets this distinction for the third time in his eight games played.
photo by: Kevin Anderson
This might have been his worst game, as he posted a team-low 0.37 points per possession used while consuming a huge number of possessions (33.6 percent). When he ended a KU possession, the team scored at least one point just 21.1 percent of the time.
Selby’s biggest issue was turnovers, as he had four in just 13 minutes. After committing two to start the second half, he was benched for the final 18 minutes, and the numbers above show why.
It will be interesting to see how the freshman responds Monday, as he could be a key to helping KU beat Baylor’s zone defense if he is able to quickly put this bad game behind him.
Bottom Line
In a game where KU’s offense once again struggled (0.98 points per possession, second-lowest this season), it was the defense that lifted the Jayhawks to the victory.
photo by: Nick Krug
After hitting 12 of its first 22 shots (54.5 percent), Nebraska made just 10 of 39 shots the rest of the way (25.6 percent).
The Huskers’ 0.94 points per possession tied for their second-lowest total this year, while their 38.5 eFG% also was their second-worst mark of the season. NU also tied for its third-highest turnover percentage this year (23.4 percent).
In a game where KU was outrebounded 43-32, the Jayhawks made up some ground in three-point shooting. Though KU didn’t shoot a great percentage (7 of 21, 33.3 percent), it did defend NU well from long range (3 of 13, 23.1 percent).
photo by: Nick Krug
KU now will travel to Waco for its toughest test of the year against Baylor.
Or — if you’re a believer in reality over preseason rankings — KU will travel to Waco for a game that should be about the same difficulty level as the Iowa State game was on Wednesday.