LJWorld.com weblogs The Newell Post
Posted
by Jesse Newell
July 20, 2009 at 10:27 a.m.
"6.5 wins and no excuses" doesn't have the same ring
If Colorado coach Dan Hawkins is serious about his "10 wins and no excuses" for his Buffaloes this season, he can have his friends put their money where his mouth is.
Hawkins_.jpg
The college football future odds have been released by Vegasinsider.com, and, not surprisingly, sports books have slightly lower expectations for the Buffs.
Vegas Insider's predicted win total for Colorado this season is 6.5. So even if Hawkins's team falls three wins short of his prediction, his friends would still be rolling in the dough if they bet the over.
For fun, here are the predicted regular-season win totals for the Big 12 teams*:
Baylor 5
Kansas State 5.5
Texas A&M 5.5
Missouri 6.5
Colorado 6.5
Texas Tech 8
Nebraska 8
Kansas 8
Oklahoma State 9
Oklahoma 9.5
Texas 10.5
* — Iowa State was not listed.
And here are the odds for each of the conference teams to win the Big 12 Championship Game:
Texas 13/10
Oklahoma 8/5
Kansas 5/1
Nebraska 5/1
Oklahoma State 8/1
Missouri 20/1
Colorado 20/1
Texas Tech 20/1
Kansas State 40/1
Baylor 40/1
Texas A&M 40/1
Iowa State 75/1
So here's my question to you guys.
If I gave you $10 right now and said you had to make a bet with it on one of the above odds, which one would you take*?
* — This, of course, is just hypothetical. For one, I'm not promoting that anyone gamble. For two, I can't afford giving everyone $10, though that would be nice of me.
In other words, which of the above numbers looks the most off to you?
I think I'd have to put my 10 Monopoly dollars on the over 9.5 wins for Oklahoma.
monopoly.jpg
Though I don't think the Sooners will win the South, I wouldn't be shocked if they did.
To finish with fewer than 9.5 wins, OU would have to lose three games in the regular season. Though a loss to Texas is likely, the Sooners, as I see it, should be favored in every other game this season.
Take a look at their schedule below:
September 5 — BYU
September 12 — Idaho State
September 19 — Tulsa
October 3 — at Miami
October 10 — Baylor
October 17 — Texas
October 24 — at Kansas
October 31 — Kansas State
November 7 — at Nebraska
November 14 — Texas A&M
November 21 — at Texas Tech
November 28 — Oklahoma State
I just don't see three losses above from an Oklahoma team that returns so much talent.
murray.jpg
OK, so where is your (fake) $10 going*?
* — And, just for fun, let's say you can't pick the over for Kansas, as tempting as it might be.
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Comments
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jfcm77 (anonymous) says…
I love football!
kcgregory (anonymous) says…
Texas Tech under 8. They're not likely getting to 9 so we're at least pushing. OSU 8-1 is good odds I think. I do like OU over 9.5 as well.
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
No brainer... Texas.
Good blogpost, Jesse.
"* — Iowa State was not listed. "
Ouch.
jnewell (Jesse Newell) says…
kcgregory — I thought about Texas Tech, but here's what scares me: Leach has led seven straight Red Raider teams to at least eight victories (this does include bowl wins).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Leach
Even though TTU looks down this year, that would be a scary bet to make, based on history alone.
kcgregory (anonymous) says…
they're all scary or vegas as we know it wouldn't exist. i weighed in without looking at the schedule too (mistake).
should lose: OU, Texas, OSU
tough ones: @Neb, KU
frisky ones: @Baylor, @ Houston
Upon further review I think I agree with you. I doubt they go 2-5 in those seven or drop a different one. they put the number at 8 for a reason.
kcgregory (anonymous) says…
Mizzou is interesting too at 6.5. Bowling Green, Furman, and Iowa St are the only three games I would feel nearly certain they win. Two road non-cons, two tough home games (TX, Neb). The most I see them winning is seven. Maybe take the under.
MissinLawrence (anonymous) says…
KState at 5.5 games only? wtf. I am hopeful (or crazy), but I think KSU will win more than 5.5 games. I think the hype of Bill Synder returning will not only pump the players up but the fans as well. Granted this is a good excuse for other teams to beat KSU. Can't wait!!
The_Original_Bob (anonymous) says…
Baylor 5 - Push
Kansas State 5.5 - Under
Texas A&M 5.5 - Under
Missouri 6.5 - Under
Colorado 6.5 - Over
Texas Tech 8 - No clue
Nebraska 8 - Over
Kansas 8 - Push
Oklahoma State 9 - Under
Oklahoma 9.5 - Over
Texas 10.5 -Over