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LJWorld.com weblogs Dangerous Ideas

Global Warming Forces Major Change in Behavior of a Common Animal.

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Normally I don't get alarmist about climate change, but this is a real serious though unintended consequence of climate change that we all need to be aware of.

Climate change pushes Groundhog Day to January

The town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania has announced that it is pushing Groundhog Day forward eight days to January 25, in recognition of the impact climate change has had in western Pennsylvania. The change is based on analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), whose scientists have determined that spring has come an average of eight days earlier to the region since 1997.

Check it out!

http://action.ucsusa.org/site/Ecard?ecard_id=1761&autologin=true

Comments

Flap Doodle 3 years, 8 months ago

Those bastards! Is there no freedom left in this country?! ;)

Liberty275 3 years, 8 months ago

I take it you mean the major behavioral change is the growing predilection for knee-jerk behavior in reaction to pseudo-science the common human primate is showing of late.

Olympics 3 years, 8 months ago

‎1) 97-98% of 1372 climate researchers support anthropogenic climate change (ACC). 2) The relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107.full.pdf+html

Liberty275 3 years, 8 months ago

Ironically, 97-98% of people that graduated high school can identify the term used to describe the logical fallacy you seem to think is important to the discussion.

Flap Doodle 3 years, 8 months ago

There's no paper over here. Could somebody pass me a carbon credit?

notaubermime 3 years, 8 months ago

Golf clap to Paul. The premise has enough truth to get me.

How many of the rest you actually clicked the link?

SandCoAlmanac 3 years, 8 months ago

Cool! Welcome back, Paul! Good to see your posts again!

booyalab 3 years, 8 months ago

I didn't fall for it because everyone knows that groundhogs are in the pockets of big business and would never let a story like this come to light. Those cute button noses mask an evil appetite for corporate kickbacks.

riverdrifter 3 years, 8 months ago

I don't blame them a bit for moving things up even though I didn't see the first whistle pig of the spring until March 19 when I went to visit the trail camera. We used to decorate graves on Memorial Day with peonies and lilic blooms when I was a kid. Nowdays those have both bloomed and are long gone by then. Time changes things.

BigPrune 3 years, 8 months ago

Does the link have conspiratorial emails attached? At least those wackos have a sense of humor. Happy April Fools Day!

riverdrifter 3 years, 8 months ago

Oh, crap. should've known, but what I said is true.

At least Google didn't fool me this year. YouTube's was the funniest.

devobrun 3 years, 8 months ago

So I read the UCS link and found the usual complaints about "deniers". "Scientists" are fighting back though:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/full/nclimate1080.html#/f1

Or one could read all this and just sigh at the demise of science and the rise of politics, propaganda and agendas that are anything but scientific.

Paul Decelles 3 years, 8 months ago

Devo,

So scientists should stay out of politics? Groups of scientists can't organize to promote what they see as the political implications of science?

devobrun 3 years, 8 months ago

No and no.

Journalists, politicians, scientists and the regular guy on the street should be made aware that when scientists engage in politics, politicians are given access to science.

Today most science is funded by government or from a special interest group, like WWF. The research/government connection is so strong that all scientists are political, or work for a political organization.

That is, research at the university is usually begun by a principal investigator whose main job is getting money into the project and producing scientific papers. How often does a PI produce results that are counter to the funding agency? Are there pressures on that PI to be political in the presentation of results? How often are congresspeople involved in acquisition of funding for major research institutions? It is a big business, this science business.

All these things potentially corrupt science. Money, power, all the usual stuff. But today, science is big science and the pressure to be not quite truthful is greater than ever.

It also is much easier to fudge data. It is also much easier to obfuscate data, algorithms, and results. All of us should be far more skeptical than we are.

Paul Decelles 3 years, 8 months ago

Devo,

Oh I agree we should be skeptical, but my impression is that the skepticism people have is not even handed but applied to those results that do not fit with their own ideologies. You corrrectly point out some flaws in the current system. I wonder how we correct these problems.

I notice you don't include corporations as a special interest group. Is that just an over sight?

devobrun 3 years, 8 months ago

Corporations have dramatically reduced research funding. What research is done at a corporation is very specific and not general or "science", in the sense of fundamental learning. It is all applied with a clear cost, or revenue goal.

My father worked for Phillips Petroleum from 1947 until 1984. I used to go with him to the research center there in Bartlesville sometimes to see what he was working on. In 1961 we went in after hours and he turned on a radio transmitter that was attached to a coil wound around a glass tube. From each end came a beam of light. It was a laser. One of the first ever. A physicist had my father make it....just to see what it was.

Corporations don't do that anymore. The research center in Bartlesville is overgrown with weeds and the few buildings that are occupied contain siding companies and warehouses for furniture.

Corporate science is not driving science. The government-university complex is. With a few shekels thrown in by AARP, WWF, Sierra Club, American Heart Association, etc.

Compared to Jerry's kids, American Lung Association, and a zillion government agencies and non-profits, corporation research is a spit in the river.

Paul Decelles 3 years, 8 months ago

Devo,

Well I was using science to include applied science. I don't think science magically becomes non science because it is applied. That said, I do agree that corporations tend to fund less basic science than they used to-I am thinking here of Bell Labs as an example. I wonder if there are numbers that could shed light on this.

Cheers!

Ken Lassman 3 years, 8 months ago

This from funding of science article in Wikipedia:

Country: United States ISR&D in 2006: 312,535 (in millions) % Funded by the private sector (industry) 63.7 % Funded by the government: 31 % Executed by industry: 70.1 % Executed by higher education 13.6 % Executed by governemnt:: 12.2

Looks to me like the lion's share of research is funded by and for industry, which is primarily applied research, I suspect. Couldn't find breakdown between pure and applied science for these numbers, tho.

Paul Decelles 3 years, 8 months ago

Thanks Doug,

That seems like a lot of money until you realize that our GDP is on the order of 14 trillion dollars. So 312 billion dollars is about 2.5% of our GDP fudging a bit since my GDP figure is the 2010 estimate and your R and D figures from 2006. By the way since people tend to pick on NASA's budget, that is 18.7 billion dollars which works out to be about 0.1% of our GDP

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-02-obama-five-year-nasa.html

See also

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/898/1

devobrun 3 years, 8 months ago

Numbers are for ISR&D. Development can include expenditures regarding how far apart the keys can be on the keyboard and what color scheme to use and how those vary depending on the market (like teenagers vs construction contractors). All important to the use of a product, but not even in the same ball field as what Shannon was doing at Bell Labs.

Tax code favors research spending. Anything that can be called research is put there because of tax credits.

There are research projects at corporations that are being heavily funded. Right now the bolus of bucks are going to non-volatile memory for digital electronics. Memristors and others promise to change the computer world.

Imagine your cell phone, laptop, or whatever not needing to boot up. Instant on. Not only that, but the power to the device can be off most of the time and only come on when you type, download, or engage the device. Otherwise it is asleep.

Power consumption goes way down. Everybody keeps there computers off until they sit down and wiggle the mouse. Bam, the machine is on and running right where you left it. You can even unplug it and move it.....plug it back in and it resumes right where you last were. The memristor is a result of fundamental science. The name it was given, "ReRam", is part of the budget, but of no real scientific importance. So it is hard to view all those industry R&D numbers as science money.


Oh, look for non-volatile ram machines late next year or 2013. No doubt they will be expensive with a steep ramp down in price. By 2018, all computers will use them. Electric power consumption will drop worldwide. Maybe I can limp this old machine of mine along for another coupla years until I get a new one.

Ken Lassman 3 years, 8 months ago

Doesn't DARPA still fund pure research? Seems like there ought to be a place to look for pure vs applied research numbers, but the devil's in how to define each....

Centerville 3 years, 8 months ago

Hilarious story but, just a year ago, I wouldn't have immediately thought "I'll bet it's The Onion". I would have thought "Oh no, another lemming government takes the bait." Things are looking up!

OldEnuf2BYurDad 3 years, 8 months ago

"since 1997."

Big woop-de-do. Fourteen years of warm weather is not "climate change".

I bet if they go back far enough, they'll find another 14 year period just like it in the records. I'm guessing sometime around the dustbowl years.

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