Trying to explain K-State’s .500 Big 12 record; plus, two very different predictions for Monday’s game

Tyshawn Taylor, (10) left, loses the handle on a ball against Kansas State in the first half Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Jesse Newell: Welcome back to the GameDay Cram Session, as Kansas is taking on Kansas State on Monday night at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan.

Tom, why isn’t Kansas State better than a .500 Big 12 team?

photo by: Mike Yoder

Tyshawn Taylor, (10) left, loses the handle on a ball against Kansas State in the first half Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Tom Keegan: For one thing, the Wildcats’ backcourt is flawed. Will Spradling can shoot, but he’s too easy to blow by on the dribble. Angel Rodriguez can score and he’s a pretty good passer, too, but he turns it over too much and he too can get abused on defense. Martavious Irving is a tough, tough defender, strong and quick, but he’s not a guy you want running things at the other end.

Also, I think Frank Martin needs to settle on a rotation and decide which big men he’s going to play the most.

JN: KU coach Bill Self touched on one of KSU’s biggest difficulties in Big 12 play during Saturday’s postgame press conference: the Wildcats’ inability to win close games.

http://www2.kusports.com/videos/2012/feb/11/35381/

KSU has played three conference games that have been decided by three points and lost them all. The Wildcats have won their six league games by an average of 13.3 points and lost their six Big 12 games by an average of 7.5 points.

Those kind of numbers point to a team getting a bit unlucky and perhaps being better than its league record indicates.

Looking at KU, from the Jayhawks’ perspective, do you think it worrisome to see how effective Oklahoma State’s full-court pressure was in the second half Saturday, or do you just attribute KU’s sloppiness to having a 27-point lead at the half?

TK: I’m sure the big lead was part of it, but I do think it was a little worrisome.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor passes through a trap by Oklahoma State defenders Markel Brown, left, and Brian Williams during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Tyshawn Taylor and Elijah Johnson will get better at breaking the pressure than they were Saturday, but beyond that, what player do you want helping them break it? There isn’t really a third reliable ballhandler/passer on the roster and reliable isn’t always the first word that pops to mind when talking about Tyshawn’s ballhandling.

JN: I think the comforting thing for KU fans should be that the team won’t see full-court presses that often, especially with coach Mike Anderson now at Arkansas.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson pulls his teammates together during the first half on Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Also, KU probably was exposed as being a weak full-court-press-breaking team at the right time. Better to learn now that the Jayhawks need work there than be surprised in the NCAA Tournament.

All right, Tom, what’s your prediction for this game?

TK: Kansas by 16.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson rejects a shot by Kansas State forward Thomas Gipson during the first half on Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

K-State might have a really tough time keeping Taylor from getting where he wants to go and setting up Thomas Robinson sand Jeff Withey for dunks.

JN: Wow. I’m not sure we’ve ever been so far apart on a prediction. I’ll take Kansas State by four.

This is the hardest game left on KU’s regular-season schedule, and it’s made even harder by the fact that it’s on a Big Monday and will be at the most hostile place that KU plays each year.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyrel Reed leaves the court after losing to Kansas State on Monday, Feb. 14, 2011 at Bramlage Coliseum.

It’s tough to turn momentum in Bramlage, and this is a game that the Wildcats will be desperate to win to ensure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Add to it that KSU should get a friendly whistle and KU has been especially foul-prone lately, and this could be a game where KSU can solve some of its offensive woes by getting to the free throw line 35 times or more.

I still see this game being close, but I think KSU pulls it out in the end.

OK, Tom, who’s your Hawk to Rock?

TK: Tyshawn Taylor.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor drives around Oklahoma State forward Le'Bryan Nash during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Other than Irving, K-State doesn’t have anybody who can slow down Taylor and once the Wildcats get behind by double digits, Irving’s not a great catch-up player.

JN: I’ll go with Travis Releford.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Travis Releford defends against Oklahoma State guard Cezar Guerrero during the first half on Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012 at Allen Fieldhouse.

He did a great job defensively on KSU’s Rodney McGruder the first time, and he seems to play his best when he knows he needs to be a lockdown defender against the opposing team’s best player.

Releford also added 16 points in the first matchup against KSU. Though the junior has only taken seven shots in KU’s last two games, I think we’ll see him be more aggressive offensively Monday night.

Predictions tally (through 25 games)
Tom: 19-6 record, 244 points off (9.8 points off/game)
Jesse: 23-2 record, 210 points off (8.4 points off/game)

Hawk to Rock

Tom Keegan
Towson: Tyshawn Taylor (4th in Keegan ratings)
Kentucky: Tyshawn Taylor (1st in Keegan ratings)
Georgetown: Elijah Johnson (4th in Keegan ratings)
UCLA: Tyshawn Taylor (2nd in Keegan ratings)
Duke: Elijah Johnson (4th in Keegan ratings)
FAU: Jeff Withey (4th in Keegan ratings)
South Florida: Tyshawn Taylor (1st in Keegan ratings)
Long Beach State: Elijah Johnson (7th in Keegan ratings)
Ohio State: Thomas Robinson (2nd in Keegan ratings)
Davidson: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
USC: Jeff Withey (4th in Keegan ratings)
Howard: Kevin Young (4th in Keegan ratings)
North Dakota: Elijah Johnson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Kansas State: Tyshawn Taylor (5th in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma: Tyshawn Taylor (4th in Keegan ratings)
Texas Tech: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Iowa State: Elijah Johnson (4th in Keegan ratings)
Baylor: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Texas: Thomas Robinson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Texas A&M: Thomas Robinson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Iowa State: Tyshawn Taylor (1st in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Missouri: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Baylor: Thomas Robinson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma State: Thomas Robinson (2nd in Keegan ratings)
Average: 2.8th in Keegan ratings

Jesse Newell
Towson: Conner Teahan (6th in Keegan ratings)
Kentucky: Elijah Johnson (4th in Keegan ratings)
Georgetown: Kevin Young (9th in Keegan ratings)
UCLA: Elijah Johnson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Duke: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
FAU: Tyshawn Taylor (7th in Keegan ratings)
South Florida: Elijah Johnson (6th in Keegan ratings)
Long Beach State: Thomas Robinson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Ohio State: Travis Releford (5th in Keegan ratings)
Davidson: Jeff Withey (5th in Keegan ratings)
USC: Elijah Johnson (1st in Keegan ratings)
Howard: Tyshawn Taylor (1st in Keegan ratings)
North Dakota: Conner Teahan (5th in Keegan ratings)
Kansas State: Travis Releford (1st in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma: Elijah Johnson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Texas Tech: Travis Releford (2nd in Keegan ratings
Iowa State: Thomas Robinson (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Baylor: Kevin Young (9th in Keegan ratings)
Texas: Travis Releford (5th in Keegan ratings)
Texas A&M: Tyshawn Taylor (1st in Keegan ratings)
Iowa State: Jeff Withey (3rd in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma: Conner Teahan (6th in Keegan ratings)
Missouri: Kevin Young (8th in Keegan ratings)
Baylor: Jeff Withey (1st in Keegan ratings)
Oklahoma State: Tyshawn Taylor (4th in Keegan ratings)
Average: 3.9th in Keegan ratings