Can KU contain dangerous Alec Burks and Cory Higgins? Predictions for KU-Colorado

Colorado guard Alec Burks pulls up for a three-pointer over Kansas guard Elijah Johnson during the first half on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011 at the Coors Events Center in Boulder.

Jesse Newell: Welcome back to the GameDay Cram Session, as Kansas is taking on Colorado on Friday night at the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City, Mo.

Tom, what impressed you most about Colorado in its 87-75 victory over K-State on Thursday?

Tom Keegan: The relentlessness of Alec Burks and Cory Higgins. It almost seems as if it doesn’t matter who’s guarding them, they’re going to get shots off and they’re so good at making guarded shots.

photo by: Nick Krug

Colorado guard Alec Burks pulls up for a three-pointer over Kansas guard Elijah Johnson during the first half on Tuesday, Jan. 25, 2011 at the Coors Events Center in Boulder.

I also liked coach Tad Boyle’s composure when less talented players made mistakes late in the game. You just know he was burning up on the inside, but he gave the players the palms-down, it’s-OK sign repeatedly.

JN: Both Higgins and Burks are especially dangerous because they can hurt opposing teams in two ways: by making shots or by getting to the free-throw line.

The two combined to make 17 of 29 field goals (58.6 percent) and 3 of 4 threes (75 percent) against Kansas State. That’s impressive by itself.

But add to it that each made it to the free-throw line at least eight times against KSU, with the two combining to make 15 of 17 free throws (88.2 percent), and that makes the task of trying to guard the duo even tougher. Even on cold shooting nights, Burks and Higgins have shown they can produce offensively by creating contact.

Moving forward, Tom, what’s a lesson that KU can take from its close win against Oklahoma State?

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Elijah Johnson defends against a drive by Oklahoma State guard Keiton Page during the first half on Thursday, March 10, 2011 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

TK: Well, it’s a little difficult to move backward in time, so we’re always moving forward, aren’t we? That’s one of those phrases that I don’t understand how or why it snuck into our culture and caught fire. Sort of like “It is what it is,” which of course says nothing. Anyway, I digress.

The lesson to learn is that you play that lousy again you just might become the first No. 1 seed to lose an NCAA Tournament game against a No. 16 seed. The No. 1 seeds are 164-0 in those games. Since they learned that lesson, of course, they won’t lose in the first round. Plus, there’s a lot more on the line next week than this week.

JN: Sorry about that. My tendency to use unnecessary words is what it is, I guess.

And while KU didn’t play great against OSU, it certainly didn’t help itself by bricking nearly everything from three-point range.

The Jayhawks made just 5 of 25 three-pointers, and most of those were wide-open shots because of the way the Cowboys were packing their defense in the lane. Tyrel Reed (1-for-8) and Brady Morningstar (1-for-6) were uncharacteristically cold from long range.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Brady Morningstar heads in for a bucket past the Oklahoma State defense during the second half on Thursday, March 10, 2011 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

It’s not often that those two guys’ poor shooting nights coincide with each other. I wouldn’t expect it to happen again this season.

OK, Tom, what’s your prediction for this game?

TK: Kansas 86, Colorado 76.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas players Tyshawn Taylor, left, Josh Selby and Thomas Robinson celebrate a bucket and a foul created by teammate Mario Little against Oklahoma State with time dwindling in the second half on Thursday, March 10, 2011 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

The Buffs, still not a lock for an NCAA bid but looking pretty good, have more to play for, but very often it’s the third consecutive day of play that wears on the legs and makes shooters fall short on their jumpers.

JN: I’ll go KU by 16.

In two games against Colorado, KU has scored 1.24 and 1.26 PPP, well above its season average (1.16).

Though Colorado can be great offensively, it hasn’t found a way to stop KU’s big men defensively. In fact, if you look at PPP numbers, both UMKC and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi performed better against KU in their one game than CU has performed in either of its games.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Marcus Morris ducks under Colorado forward Andre Roberson as he maneuvers for a bucket during the second half on Saturday, Feb. 19, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

The Buffaloes might score, but I don’t see them stopping the Jayhawks on Friday.

All right, Tom, who’s your Hawk to Rock?

TK: Thomas Robinson.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Thomas Robinson puts up a shot over Oklahoma State forward Marshall Moses during the second half on Thursday, March 10, 2011 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

Colorado doesn’t have the sort of bulk to hang with the man whose physique gives statues an inferiority complex.

JN: Because I haven’t picked him in seven games, I’ll go ahead and use my Marcus Morris trump card.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas forward Marcus Morris shoots over Oklahoma State forward Matt Pilgrim during the first half on Thursday, March 10, 2011 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

Colorado has no matchup for him. He’s made 13 of 22 shots against the Buffs this year (59.1 percent) while averaging 15.5 points and 7 rebounds.

CU hasn’t done a good job of holding down opponents’ shooting percentages all year, so I’ll say Marcus, the Big 12’s second-best shooter (behind brother Markieff), puts up at least 20 points on Friday.

Tracking the picks

Predictions tally (through 32 games)
Tom: 27-5 record, 355 points off (11.1 points off/game)
Jesse: 30-2 record, 369 points off (11.5 points off/game)

Hawk to Rock

Tom Keegan
Longwood: Tyrel Reed (6th in Keegan ratings)
Valparaiso: Marcus Morris (1st)
North Texas: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Texas A&M-CC: Marcus Morris (5th)
Ohio: Markieff Morris (3rd)
Arizona: Marcus Morris (1st)
UCLA: Tyshawn Taylor (1st)
Memphis: Markieff Morris (4th)
Colorado State: Tyshawn Taylor (2nd)
USC: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Cal: Marcus Morris (6th)
UT Arlington: Tyrel Reed (8th)
Miami: Marcus Morris (3rd)
UMKC: Markieff Morris (9th)
Michigan: Thomas Robinson (8th)
Iowa State: Tyshawn Taylor (7th)
Nebraska: Josh Selby (9th)
Baylor: Josh Selby (3rd)
Texas: Marcus Morris (3rd)
Colorado: Markieff Morris (5th)
Kansas State: Marcus Morris (4th)
Texas Tech: Markieff Morris (4th)
Nebraska: Mario Little (7th)
Missouri: Tyrel Reed (7th)
Iowa State: Markieff Morris (2nd)
Kansas State: Brady Morningstar (2nd)
Colorado: Marcus Morris (3rd)
Oklahoma State: Marcus Morris (1st)
Oklahoma: Tyrel Reed (3rd)
Texas A&M: Tyrel Reed (1st)
Missouri: Tyrel Reed (3rd)
Oklahoma State: Josh Selby (7th)
Average Hawk to Rock: 4.4th in Keegan ratings

Jesse Newell
Longwood: Markieff Morris (1st in Keegan ratings)
Valparaiso: Brady Morningstar (8th)
North Texas: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Texas A&M-CC: Thomas Robinson (2nd)
Ohio: Tyshawn Taylor (4th)
Arizona: Brady Morningstar (8th)
UCLA: Markieff Morris (6th)
Memphis: Thomas Robinson (1st)
Colorado State: Markieff Morris (1st)
USC: Thomas Robinson (2nd)
Cal: Markieff Morris (2nd)
UT Arlington: Brady Morningstar (10th)
Miami: Tyshawn Taylor (8th)
UMKC: Josh Selby (1st)
Michigan: Tyrel Reed (4th)
Iowa State: Marcus Morris (1st)
Nebraska: Thomas Robinson (3rd)
Baylor: Tyshawn Taylor (6th)
Texas: Josh Selby (8th)
Colorado: Jeff Withey (7th)
Kansas State: Tyrel Reed (8th)
Texas Tech: Thomas Robinson (1st)
Nebraska: Tyrel Reed (5th)
Missouri: Markieff Morris (3rd)
Iowa State: Brady Morningstar (4th)
Kansas State: Marcus Morris (4th)
Colorado: Josh Selby (6th)
Oklahoma State: Elijah Johnson (2nd)
Oklahoma: Markieff Morris (2nd)
Texas A&M: Thomas Robinson (7th)
Missouri: Markieff Morris (6th)
Oklahoma State: Tyshawn Taylor (4th)
Average Hawk to Rock: 4.4th in Keegan ratings