Baylor's LaceDarius Dunn, right, shoots over Morgan State's Justin Black, left, in the second half Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2011, in Waco, Texas. Dunn had 43 points including 10 three-pointers as Baylor won 89-72.

Jesse Newell: Welcome back to the GameDay Cram Session, as Kansas is taking on Baylor on Monday night in Waco, Texas.

Tom, having watched KU’s defense all year, which Baylor player do you think presents a bigger potential matchup problem for the Jayhawks: guard LaceDarius Dunn or forward Perry Jones?
Tom Keegan: I’d say LaceDarius Dunn, but that’s more about Dunn than it is about KU’s defense.

Baylor's LaceDarius Dunn, right, shoots over Morgan State's Justin Black, left, in the second half Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2011, in Waco, Texas. Dunn had 43 points including 10 three-pointers as Baylor won 89-72.

Dunn can get a shot anytime he wants against anybody, it’s just a question of whether his shots are dropping on any given night. KU has had trouble with big men, especially double-wides such as Josh Williams of UCLA and 344-pound Nebraska center Andre “The Horizontal Giant” Almeida. Perry Jones is long and super athletic a hard guard for anybody, but Dunn’s the key.

JN: I’m going to agree with you about Dunn being the bigger threat. Though Jones could be the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft, he isn’t as assertive offensively as Dunn is. Jones is taking 23.1 percent of Baylor’s shots when he’s on the floor, while Dunn is taking 33.1 percent of his team’s shots when he’s out there (32nd-most nationally).

If KU can slow down Dunn, it shuts off a greater part of the Bears’ offense.

Switching back to KU, what are you expecting from KU’s Josh Selby following his tough outing (13 minutes, four turnovers) against Nebraska?

photo by: Kevin Anderson

Josh Selby scrambles for a ball with Brandon Richardson in the first half Saturday, Jan. 15, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

TK: The answer to that question is the same as answering it for 99.9 percent of all-time freshman basketball players: Who knows? Iowa State shot 56 percent on its three-pointers to defeat Baylor, so that suggests the open looks will be there for Selby against Baylor’s 2-3 zone. He’s 3 for 14 on three-point shots in the past three games, so maybe he’s due to get hot. As with so many freshman guards, Selby has shot better from behind the arc (.436) than inside it (.342). It’s on drives, runners, etc., that freshmen need to develop a feel for how fast they need to go and they usually rush themselves in their first stretch of college games because the defenders are faster and longer and they overcompensate.

JN: Those shots in the lane will most likely be tough to come by against Baylor, which — much like Nebraska — guards the paint very well. Opponents have made just 41.9 percent of their two-pointers against the Bears (17th nationally), who have an imposing front line in Perry Jones (6-10), Anthony Jones (6-10) and the athletic Quincy Acy (6-7).

All right, Tom, what’s your prediction for this game?

TK: Tough, tough call. Kansas is the better team, but Baylor is at home. To this point, Baylor, a super-athletic team, has underachieved. The enormity of the game should have the Bears bringing their best and the crowd, unimpressive, even with KU in town on some nights, should bring its best as well. Kansas won’t go 16-0 in conference, so I’ll go with Baylor in an upset, 77-76.

Baylor center Perry Jones (5) drives to the basket past Iowa State forward Jamie Vanderbeken during the first half of their game Saturday in Ames, Iowa. Though he had just 10 points and five boards against the Cyclones, Jones is considered by many to be a possible No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. He’ll lead the Bears against KU in a Big Monday game tonight in Waco, Texas.

JN: I’ll go pretty far in the other direction and say KU by 11. Baylor has been worse both offensively and defensively after losing Ekpe Udoh, Tweety Carter and Josh Lomers from last year’s squad. I wasn’t impressed with Baylor’s crowd two years ago, and even though a sellout is expected, I’m guessing quite a few of those folks will be KU grads from around Waco.

The Jayhawks should be ready for the Bears’ zone defense, and they have the long-range shooters to beat it. KU hasn’t had a good offensive day in a while, but I think we’ll see it Monday against a Baylor team will give KU plenty of chances in transition with its high turnover percentage offensively (22.7 percent, 273rd nationally).

Interestingly, here’s how the Des Moines Register’s Sean Keeler described the Bears: ” … Baylor looks like a dumber version of Kansas — tall, gifted and careless with the rock … “

OK, Tom, who’s your Hawk to Rock?

TK: Josh Selby. He should get plenty open looks.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Josh Selby knocks the ball away from Nebraska guard Brandon Richardson during the first half on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

JN: So you do think he’s going to bounce back after his rough game against Nebraska.

I’m going with Tyshawn Taylor.

photo by: Nick Krug

Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor heads to the bucket against Nebraska forward Andre Almeida during the second half on Saturday, Jan. 15, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse.

With his quick hands, he should get plenty of chances for steals, and he’s also one of the best Jayhawks in transition. His ability to penetrate then pitch also should help the Jayhawks get open looks from the perimeter when the Bears go zone.

This looks to be a great matchup for Taylor if he can limit his turnovers.

Tracking the picks

Predictions tally (through 17 games)
Tom: 16-1 record, 210 points off (12.4 points off/game)
Jesse: 17-0 record, 218 points off (12.8 points off/game)

Hawk to Rock

Tom Keegan
Longwood: Tyrel Reed (6th in Keegan ratings)
Valparaiso: Marcus Morris (1st)
North Texas: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Texas A&M-CC: Marcus Morris (5th)
Ohio: Markieff Morris (3rd)
Arizona: Marcus Morris (1st)
UCLA: Tyshawn Taylor (1st)
Memphis: Markieff Morris (4th)
Colorado State: Tyshawn Taylor (2nd)
USC: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Cal: Marcus Morris (6th)
UT Arlington: Tyrel Reed (8th)
Miami: Marcus Morris (3rd)
UMKC: Markieff Morris (9th)
Michigan: Thomas Robinson (8th)
Iowa State: Tyshawn Taylor (7th)
Nebraska: Josh Selby (9th)
Average Hawk to Rock: 5th in Keegan ratings

Jesse Newell
Longwood: Markieff Morris (1st in Keegan ratings)
Valparaiso: Brady Morningstar (8th)
North Texas: Tyrel Reed (6th)
Texas A&M-CC: Thomas Robinson (2nd)
Ohio: Tyshawn Taylor (4th)
Arizona: Brady Morningstar (8th)
UCLA: Markieff Morris (6th)
Memphis: Thomas Robinson (1st)
Colorado State: Markieff Morris (1st)
USC: Thomas Robinson (2nd)
Cal: Markieff Morris (2nd)
UT Arlington: Brady Morningstar (10th)
Miami: Tyshawn Taylor (8th)
UMKC: Josh Selby (1st)
Michigan: Tyrel Reed (4th)
Iowa State: Marcus Morris (1st)
Nebraska: Thomas Robinson (3rd)
Average Hawk to Rock: 4th in Keegan ratings