photo by: Associated Press

Senior Hurricane Specialist Stacy Stewart watches monitors at the National Hurricane Center, Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018, in Miami. Boaters evacuated to safe harbors, and motorists fled barrier islands Tuesday as the Gulf Coast hustled to get ready for Tropical Storm Gordon, which was on track to hit Mississippi as a Category 1 hurricane sometime after nightfall. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

The Lawrence area could see more rain this week as Tropical Storm Gordon hits land in Alabama and moves into the Midwest. But how much is still up for debate.

Brandon Drake, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Topeka, said theories differ on how the storm will progress. Current models show that the bulk of the storm will reach southeast and south-central Kansas and then move north toward Kansas City, he said.

If that happens, Lawrence will likely receive some rain from the edges of the storm.

“Hopefully we get some beneficial rain from that,” Drake said. “But how that actually works out is the (million-dollar) question, because there is a lot that could change.”

Prior to Wednesday, Lawrence had received 0.19 inches of rain in September, which is 0.52 inches below normal, Drake said. For the year, Lawrence had received 17.01 inches, which is about 11.6 inches below average.

As of 7 p.m., Lawrence received about 0.76 inches of rain on Wednesday.

Although Lawrence received consistent rain in recent weeks, the area is still considerably behind its annual average and is still suffering from drought conditions.

“We are still seeing abnormal to exceptional drought (conditions),” Drake said. “We definitely still need the rain … we could use quite a bit, but we obviously aren’t expecting that much over the next two days.”

Additionally, Drake said receiving a lot of rain at once does not do much good because of the large amount of runoff versus absorption. He pointed to the significant rain in Manhattan recently.

Manhattan received 9 inches of rain over the Labor Day weekend, causing significant flooding and the evacuation of more than 300 people, according to The Associated Press.

“Do you meet the climatological average? Sure, but it doesn’t do you much good,” he said of the high amounts of rainfall.

Some of the flooding in Manhattan is expected to flow into the Kansas River, but Drake said it was not likely to make much of a difference in the Lawrence area, according to gauges monitoring the river.

Drake said the flooding in Manhattan could also flow into two reservoirs in that area, Tuttle Creek Lake and Milford Lake, which can still take on a lot of water. For Lawrence to see any significant changes to the river, similar amounts of rainfall would need to hit the area, he said.

“We are not expecting the same amount of rain that we have seen out in those areas, so the rivers in this area, in theory, should be OK, unless we do get pockets of heavier rain,” he said. “Right now that is not expected to be the case.”