photo by: Shutterstock image

The House of Representatives chamber of the Kansas Statehouse is pictured July 23, 2014 in Topeka.

TOPEKA – Conservative Republicans gained back some of the territory they lost in the Kansas House in 2016, but how much additional strength they will have next year still depends on the outcome of the Nov. 6 general elections.

Conservatives had dominated the House GOP caucus – and, therefore, the House as a whole – for at least 10 years until the 2016 elections. That year, in a backlash against then-Gov. Sam Brownback’s controversial tax policies, voters ousted large numbers of them, first in the August primaries, and again in the general election when Democrats picked up 13 seats.

When the 2017 session began, the Republican caucus was almost evenly split, with conservatives holding a slight advantage.

The clearest example of that came on Feb. 23, 2017, when the House passed a bill to expand the state’s Medicaid program, as allowed under the Affordable Care Act.

In a vote that could be seen as defining the difference between moderates and conservatives, 41 House Republicans joined with 40 Democrats in voting yes on the bill, while 44 Republicans voted no.

Of the 41 who voted yes to expand Medicaid, 12 faced primary challenges this year. And of those, five lost their seats on Tuesday. One other race was too close to call. That involved Rep. Steven Becker, R-Buhler, who on Election Night was trailing challenger Paul Waggoner by a single vote, 2,013 to 2,014.

In addition, though, there was one staunch conservative who voted against expanding Medicaid who also lost a primary race Tuesday. That was Rep. John Whitmer, R-Wichita, who lost to a more moderate challenger, J.C. Moore, of Clearwater, by a margin of 52 votes.

University of Kansas political science professor Patrick Miller said he believes several factors came into play in the 2018 primaries. For one, the wave of anti-Brownback sentiment that swept through the 2016 primaries was no longer present. And, he said, some of the “moderate” Republicans who won in 2016 may have turned out to be more liberal than voters in their districts had expected.

“So maybe they can come in two years ago riding a wave of anti-Brownback sentiment, but when they get their voting record, they’re pretty left, and that’s not where the Republican Party is,” Miller said.

But perhaps the biggest factor, Miller said, was at the top of the ticket in the GOP primary for governor.

“I mean, bluntly, no matter how great a state House member is, they’re often not the ones driving turnout, except maybe at the margins with a get-out-the-vote campaign,” Miller said. “And if the Republican race (for governor) was very much between two strong conservatives, that may bring out more conservatives.”

Still, it will take until the results of the November election are known before anyone will know the full impact that this year’s elections will have on the overall makeup of the Kansas House.

Of the five conservatives who defeated pro-Medicaid expansion moderates, three face no Democratic opposition in the general election.

Two, however, do face Democratic opponents, although those are districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016, and Brownback carried in 2014, according to an analysis Miller released last year.

In addition, though, there are 25 races where conservatives who voted against Medicaid expansion also face Democratic challengers, and Democrats are hopeful about several of them.

One of those is the 30th District in Johnson County where conservative Rep. Randy Powell, of Olathe, chose not to run again, but where Republican voters nominated another conservative, Wendy Bingesser.

That’s a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and which Democrat Paul Davis carried in the 2014 gubernatorial race.

Democrats also stand to pick up districts currently held by moderate Republicans, including the 45th District in Douglas County, where moderate Rep. Tom Sloan is stepping down after 12 terms in office.

Republican voters there nominated another moderate, Cynthia Smith, while Democrats nominated former Lawrence Mayor Mike Amyx.

Miller said that district has been trending more Democratic in recent years. Even strong Kansas Republicans like U.S. Sen. Jerry Moran and retiring U.S. Rep. Lynn Jenkins have not carried that district in recent years, and Miller said Sloan may have been the only Republican who could win it.

Another district to keep an eye on, he said, is the 25th District in Johnson County, where moderate Rep. Melissa Rooker, of Fairway, faces Democratic challenger Rui Xu, of Westwood.

Xu raised nearly $19,000 for his campaign through July, a sizeable sum for a state House race and a little more than Rooker raised during the same period. But Rooker came into the race with a large war chest left over from previous campaigns, and she goes into the general election with more than $100,000 in cash on hand.

“I know she has a lot of money, but she is the only Republican who wins that district, and it’s 2018,” Miller said. “I don’t think she can afford to take her re-election for granted.”

All told, Miller said, moderate Republicans stand to lose ground in 2018, but it remains to be seen how many will be replaced by conservatives, and how many by Democrats.

“For awhile, people were saying, ‘Were moderates back or was 2016 just a blip?’ and I think it’s more of a blip,” Miller said. “They’re certainly not dead, but they’re swimming uphill in their party.”