Tom Keegan: My KU draft order

Kansas forward Perry Ellis (34) bangs into Texas center Prince Ibeh as he heads to the bucket during the second half, Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016 at Allen Fieldhouse.

Pretend you’re an NBA general manager holding a pick late in the first round. You have a balanced roster with no one glaring position need. For the sake of argument, you can only choose from players on the 2015-16 Kansas University basketball roster.

Your choice?

Based on mock drafts, the Kansas prospect with the best chance, and not a great one at that, of going in the first round is Cheick Diallo.

If I’m going to guarantee roughly $2 million over a two-year period to a prospect, I would look elsewhere on the KU roster.

Namely, I would spend the pick and the money on Perry Ellis, the most skilled, proven basketball player, even if he did get shut down by eventual national champion Villanova. Didn’t everybody?

True, Ellis is not as freakishly athletic as most NBA small forwards, and there is no changing that. But he’s about average for an NBA small forward in terms of height (6-foot-8) and wingspan (6-10), has a soft shooting touch, a good handle, decent quickness, excellent speed and a terrific feel for the game, particularly as a clever scorer.

Succeeding in the NBA presents a challenge for Ellis because at times he’ll have to defend and be defended by longer players just as quick or quicker. His high basketball IQ will enable him to make the necessary adjustments.

Diallo, so quick, fast and active for a power forward, even by NBA standards, has a higher ceiling and a 7-4 reach, but he showed so little in the way of a feel for the game during his freshman season at Kansas that it requires a huge leap of faith to believe he’ll develop a strong feel for the game. So many raw talents never find it. He showed a soft shooting touch, but it’s worth wondering at this stage whether he’ll ever develop a feel for passing, positioning, footwork at both ends, understanding where he’s supposed to be and knowing the smartest path to get there.

Plus, Diallo will need to fill out in order to withstand the pounding he’ll take from stronger NBA players, especially early in his career. If he stays in the draft and is so impatient as to not stay in college to learn the game, I would have concerns about whether he could exercise the necessary patience to be able to overcome his shortcomings without growing discouraged and permanently ruining his confidence.

Ellis’ quiet nature won’t hurt him in interviews with NBA teams because he has a four-year body of work that does the talking for him. He doesn’t have to try to convince general managers that he’ll work hard at his game. They already know that by tracking his yearly improvement playing for a demanding college coach.

NBAdraft.net said that Ellis fits “into the tweener mold. Not quite big enough to be an ideal power forward in the NBA, and there are questions as to whether he is athletic enough to play NBA small forwards.”

Fair question, but also similar language that the same website used in listing the weaknesses of Michigan State’s Draymond Green, who lasted until the 35th pick of the 2012 draft and was an All-Star this season: “Tweener, undersized for a physical forward, yet lacks the athleticism of a wing.”

That’s not to say Ellis projects as the next Green, who has longer arms, is stronger, a better natural rebounder and passer than Ellis. But Green does serve as a nice reminder that sometimes it pays for NBA teams to realize that one reason seasoned college players figure out how to compete in the NBA is that the same basketball brain that enabled them to develop polished college games travels well to the professional ranks.