As the abundant crop of 2016 presidential candidates join fellow Americans in celebrating Thanksgiving with turkey, family and prayer, some are enjoying a more bountiful political harvest than others. We’ve rated their fortunes on a scale of one turkey (least thankful) to three turkeys (most thankful).

One turkey

Jeb Bush: He is 2015’s biggest flop. Unassertive in debates, unprepared for the modern confrontational campaign style, looks often he’d rather be elsewhere. Ensnared himself in his brother’s Iraq mess. Showing signs of life but, despite a $100 million war chest, needs significant spike in support to survive Iowa and New Hampshire. Running a potentially fatal fifth in the state he governed.

John Kasich: Good press notices for moderate presentation of conservative views won’t help with GOP voters. Resisted pandering to populist anti-government, anti-immigrant outcry. But one-state focus on New Hampshire only worked for John McCain in 2008 because he started as the GOP favorite.

Chris Christie: Probably should have run in 2012. Despite assertiveness, has struggled to escape fallout from George Washington Bridge stoppage fiasco, image as a bully and home state disapproval. Also stressing New Hampshire, where Trump continues to dominate.

Carly Fiorina: Brief spurt from confronting Trump’s sexist comments faded when dramatic debate assertions about fetal experiments and female job loss proved untrue. Despite frequent strong audience receptions, can’t match top contenders in money or organization.

Lindsey Graham: Like Kasich, might suffer from attempts at rationality. Benefit from assertive national security positions offset by moderate immigration stance. Never gained traction.

Rand Paul: Too isolationist and civil libertarian for hawkish, security conscious GOP. Luckily, can fall back on Senate re-election race.

Mike Huckabee: Second time not a charm.

Martin O’Malley: Outmaneuvered by Sanders to be top Clinton rival, despite innate strengths as a younger Democrat with governing experience. Clinton might be lucky he’s not her main rival.

Two turkeys

Marco Rubio: Poised to become the establishment favorite when the field narrows. Wisely shepherded financial and human resources for maximum impact when it counts. Performed well in all four debates. Generational message resonates. Despite strongly conservative stances on abortion and climate change, and an immigration flip-flop, the GOP candidate Democrats fear most. His immediate challenge: Score an early victory, perhaps in South Carolina or Nevada.

Ted Cruz: Superior organizing in the first four states — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada — and his college-honed debating skills has tempered initial judgments he’s too conservative to be nominated or elected. Confrontational style and a less-than-warm personality still pose long-term problems.

Donald Trump: The unexpected GOP headliner — so far. Bombastic style captured anti-Washington GOP grassroots sentiment, driving support to levels only he could have imagined. Smart, charismatic, and willing to spend his millions. His savaging of rivals stirred resentment but often contained truths. Questions remain about his ability to expand support, his temperament and his lack of governmental experience. But has potential to sweep early tests.

Ben Carson: Another unexpected favorite, especially among evangelicals influential in Iowa caucuses, South Carolina primary and March 1 Southern tests. Inspiring life story, low-key anti-Trump demeanor and an aura of niceness all helped. But exaggerations undercut that autobiography, and increased focus revealed weak command of issues. May have peaked.

Hillary Clinton: Started as strong Democratic front-runner. Still strong Democratic front-runner after effective debate performances, Joe Biden’s withdrawal, bravura show against over-eager Benghazi inquisitors. Increased focus on foreign policy helps, as does rival Bernie Sanders’ discomfort with it. Benefits as experienced, strong leader. But legal problems still lurk, ethical concerns hurt, and many voters simply don’t like her.

Bernie Sanders: From curiosity to folk hero, struck a chord with Democratic Party’s left wing and younger voters. Doppelganger Larry David reinforced kindly curmudgeon image. But doesn’t control own destiny and having trouble expanding support. It’s unlikely Democrats will nominate a 73-year-old Socialist.

Three turkeys

President Barack Obama: Another tough year, in which he seemed more contained than the Islamic State and France’s Hollande and Russia’s Putin looked like stronger leaders. But he bolstered his legacy with long-sought agreement curbing Iranian nuclear development, and his cherished Affordable Care Act continued to survive Supreme Court tests and GOP legislative assaults. The best part: The end is in sight, just 14 months away.

— Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.