Opinion: Will age be a factor in 2016 race?

Americans always like something new. A recent focus group session with a cross section of Colorado voters showed how that might affect the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign.

Participants in the nonpartisan focus group conducted by veteran Democratic Party pollster Peter Hart showed disdain for the older, more established 2016 hopefuls (think Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush) and positive curiosity about two newer faces (think Elizabeth Warren and Rand Paul.)

About the same time, 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney echoed those sentiments in announcing he would not run again, saying he believed “one of our next generation of Republican leaders … may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democratic nominee.”

It would be surprising if such attitudes didn’t surface elsewhere.

Overall, they suggest a potential Republican advantage, thanks to a large field of newer faces. And it should be a warning to Democrats, who are not only poised to nominate Clinton but also have a far smaller bench of future leaders.

This is the political fallout from the sweeping Republican 2010 and 2014 victories, which produced a new generation of GOP officeholders and prevented a similar group of Democrats from emerging.

The GOP field includes four potential contenders in their 40s — Govs. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida. Four others are in their 50s — Govs. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Mike Pence of Indiana, and Sens. Paul of Kentucky and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Former Govs. Bush of Florida, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Rick Perry of Texas, and Dr. Ben Carson are in their 60s.

By contrast, of the six most-mentioned Democrats, only Warren, 65, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, 52, are younger than Clinton, 67. Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb are all older.

The GOP also has a broad array of up-and-coming prospects. Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and newly elected Sens. Cory Gardner of Colorado and Joni Ernst of Iowa are all in their 40s.

A corresponding Democratic list is far smaller. It includes Texas’ 40-year-old Castro twins — Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio, and Rep. Joaquin Castro. But neither has won statewide office. The number of fellow Democratic 40-somethings who have won is small, led by Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey, 45; and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, 48.

Prospects in their 50s include Sens. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and California Attorney General Kamala Harris, a favorite to win a U.S. Senate seat in 2016. Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Mark Warner of Virginia are in their early 60s.

It’s easy to see Clinton tapping one of these as her running mate — perhaps Kaine. He’s from a crucial swing state, was Richmond’s mayor and Virginia’s governor and is an emerging leader in Senate debates on authorizing military action abroad.

But Romney’s withdrawal virtually ensures a race pitting an older Democrat against a younger Republican. The question is how much younger. Bush is 5 1/2 years younger than Clinton, while Walker is 20 years younger.

History sends a mixed message. In four of the last six elections, Democrats Barack Obama and Bill Clinton defeated significantly older Republican rivals. But in the 1980s, two older Republicans, Ronald Reagan and George Bush, beat younger Democrats.

On NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Chuck Todd noted that, on average, presidents elected in the past century were 7.6 years younger than their predecessors. In 2016, the issue may be whether youth again carries the day or Obama’s presidency spurs voters to elect someone older and more experienced.