Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s decision to become the first of an expected dozen or more candidates forming presidential exploratory committees provides a good excuse to start considering 2016.

And why not? In political terms, 2014 is so … yesterday, and the potential 2016 scenarios are endless.

So let’s take a first look at Professor Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the Presidency,” the guidelines that, for more than 20 years, have provided the best long-range predictor of presidential elections, ever since they forecast a year ahead that the first President George Bush would be defeated.

In fact, the American University professor says, his keys have correctly forecast every presidential race since 1860. That includes its 2000 forecast that Democrat Al Gore would beat Republican George W. Bush; the keys predict the popular vote, which Gore won, not the electoral vote, which elected Bush, he says.

Lichtman’s system involves answering true or false to 13 statements.

If eight or more of the 13 are true, the incumbent party retains the presidency. If at least six are false, it loses.

With the GOP’s gain of House seats in the midterm election (Key No. 1), most keys are now either fixed or clearly trending one way. But the ultimate result remains in doubt: Republicans are two short of the six “false” keys needed to beat the incumbent party, and the Democrats are unsure of the eight that would ensure them another term in the White House.

Here is where they stand:

Key 1: Incumbent party gained House seats in midterm election. Nope. Democrats lost 11 seats. False.

Key 2: No serious fight for the incumbent party’s nomination. No clear challenger to Hillary Clinton has emerged. True for now.

Key 3: Incumbent president running. The two-term limit precludes that. False.

Key 4: No significant third-party candidate. Independent candidacies generally emerge later in the electoral cycle. True for now.

Key 5: No recession during the election year. That’s the current forecast. True for now.

Key 6: Greater or equal economic growth during the current term than in the two previous terms. The Great Recession spanning Bush’s second and Obama’s first terms should make this one true. Likely True.

Key 7: Incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama did that by enacting Obamacare in his first term, but second-term efforts to enact significant changes, such as comprehensive immigration reform, remain stalled. Likely False.

Key 8: No major domestic social unrest. True.

Key 9: No major scandal. This one is somewhat open to debate. Republicans would cite the problems with the IRS, the bungled security that led to the death of four Americans at Benghazi, and the problems of the Veterans Administration. But, so far, nothing rises to the Watergate or Teapot Dome level. True.

Key 10: No major foreign policy or defense disaster. Parts of the world are a mess, but not primarily because of an administration initiative such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq. True for now.

Key 11: The incumbent administration achieves a major foreign policy or defense success. A pact preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons might qualify if it comes to pass. Likely false.

Key 12: Incumbent party’s presidential candidate is charismatic. Lichtman says he’s never considered Hillary Clinton charismatic, making the key false. But a case can be made that she would be considered charismatic merely by becoming as the first woman nominated by a major party. In doubt.

Key 13: Challenging candidate is not charismatic. Again, it’s too early to know for sure, but looking at the prospective GOP field, the odds favor this one coming true. Likely true.

In summary, the present count has eight keys answered as true or likely true, one in doubt and four false or likely false, two fewer than needed to indicate a Republican victory.

Lichtman says he’s not ready to make a definitive forecast, noting “one of the beauties of the keys is that some keys are open to reasoned debate.”

The false total could reach the decisive six if two of these five things happen: a major Democratic primary fight; a significant third-party candidate emerges; a major Obama scandal; a major Obama administration foreign policy disaster; or Democrats’ nomination of a non-charismatic candidate.

House Republicans hope their hearings on Benghazi will elevate that tragedy into a major scandal. But the GOP’s best hopes might be a Democratic presidential nomination fight or the nomination of a non-charismatic Democratic candidate.

In other words, a Democratic primary fight that Clinton loses could signal a Republican victory in 2016. Stay tuned.