Wichita ? Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service is sticking by its earlier forecast for the state’s winter wheat crop.

The agency reported in an update released Thursday that the size of this year’s crop is expected to be 261.8 million bushels from 7.7 million acres. That is unchanged from last month, but is down 27 percent from last year’s production. If realized it would be the smallest wheat crop in Kansas since 1996.

Wheat harvest began last week in south-central Kansas. The new forecast is based on crop conditions on June 1.

KASS says it expects yields to average 34 bushels per acre. That is the same as last month’s estimate, but is down 11 bushels an acre from a year ago. If realized, it would be the worst average yield since 2007.