Holiday shopping season strong despite December drop-off

? The holiday shopping season was the best since 2006, as a strong November more than offset spending that tapered off in late December.

The strength of holiday sales from Oct. 31 through Jan. 1 suggests a recovery in consumer spending. For investors, whose expectations were riding high after a stronger-than-expected November, the December figures were disappointing. That hurt retail stocks Thursday.

Early holiday discounts, which started in late October, drove big sales early in the season but also had shoppers finishing more gift-buying before December. A lull early in December and a blizzard Dec. 26 in the Northeast also took bites out of sales.

From Oct. 31-Jan. 1, revenue at stores open at least a year rose 3.8 percent over last year, according to an index compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers. That’s the biggest increase since 2006, when the measurement rose 4.4 percent.

The index tailed off to a 3.1 percent increase in December after a 5.4 percent rise in November.

“The overall season was good, but the strength came from the beginning of the season,” said Michael P. Niemira, chief economist at International Council of Shopping Centers.

December’s gains came on top of a solid 3.6 percent gain in December 2009; November’s figures compare with a 0.2 percent decline.

Thursday’s figures are based on revenue at stores open at least a year. That’s long been considered a key indicator of a retailer’s health, because it excludes revenue at stores that open or close during the year.

However, changes in shopping habits and other factors have led the figure to lose some of its luster as a yardstick. Some stores exclude online revenue, which soared 12 percent overall and accounts for 8 to 10 percent of total holiday spending. Online spending spiked 17 percent the week after Christmas, according to comScore, possibly getting a boost from shoppers cooped up by snow.

In addition, many retailers have stopped reporting monthly figures, including some of the biggest chains: Wal-Mart Stores, Best Buy Co. and Sears Holdings Corp. Only about 30 merchants report now, down from about 60 at the end of 2005.

Nevertheless, the figures offer what analysts believe was a fair picture of the holiday season, according to Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC.