Commentary: It’s a big game; take Steelers

? A Wall Street superstition called the “Super Bowl predictor” yields this promise: If an old AFL team wins, the market will slump that year. If a team from the old NFL wins, stocks will go up.

What this tells us about who will win today still isn’t clear, but it might explain what your broker’s been up to.

Predicting a Super Bowl winner has proved almost as difficult as getting up my driveway this week.

I have studied stats. Looked at trends. Consulted experts. Checked bookies.

My dizzy head tells me Green Bay should win. Hotter quarterback. Better receivers. Terrific record indoors.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh won’t have its Pro Bowl center, Maurkice Pouncey.

In a game projected to be as close as this one, the loss of a key position usually is enough to swing the vote.

But I’m going with the Steelers, nonetheless. Shoot me. I’m a fool for big-game experience.

Green Bay hasn’t played in a Super Bowl since 1998. The Steelers have won two since then, most recently in 2009.

The Steelers lead in players with Super Bowl experience, 25-2. And when the rest of the Packers gather around Ryan Pickett and Charles Woodson to glean wisdom from their Super Bowl days, all they’ll be able to say is, “What do we know? We both lost.”

Let us not underestimate what it means to hold such a huge edge in experience in the sport’s biggest game.

In Super Bowl matchups where one team had more appearances than the other, the team with the advantage in experience is 27-11.

Every once in a while, teams overcome their lack of history. Just last year, in fact, when New Orleans beat Indianapolis.

There’s more to it than just a statistical advantage. A player can never be sure how he’ll perform until he’s done it. Aaron Rodgers may well play as crisply as he has since he came back from his second concussion of the season. His passer rating of 109.2 leads the postseason.

But what if he isn’t up to it? What if the Steelers’ violent defense, which is giving up 80 fewer yards a game than the Packers in the playoffs, upsets his timing? Can the Packers recover from that? They barely held off the Bears, who were working on their third quarterback of the day.

The Steelers know what they can do when their quarterback isn’t at his best. Ben Roethlisberger won his first Super Bowl with a passer rating of 34. He won then because of the players around him. He might be able to do it again.

The Steelers’ defense is as good as ever, and their power running game, led by Rashard Mendenhall, can wear down a clock and a defense.

And if Big Ben plays like he usually does in big games — extending plays, seeing downfield, making clutch throws — he can be the difference.

A Super Bowl win today would be his third. Only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have won more, with four apiece. A third would tie Roethlisberger with Troy Aikman and Tom Brady.

Going into the game, those five quarterbacks are a combined 16-1 in Super Bowls.

Come tonight, that record should only get better.