Statewide governor, Senate races could tip House contests

? Call it a ripple-down effect that could determine House control.

The outcomes of marquee races always influence down-ballot contests on Election Day, and, this year, whether Democrats keep power or Republicans seize it could well hinge on which party prevails in several hotly contested races for governor and Senate.

With just over three weeks before Nov. 2, Republicans hope strong-running statewide campaigns in places like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio will help them triumph in on-the-bubble congressional races — and help them win the House. Democrats, meanwhile, look to top-of-the-ticket wins in places like Colorado, Maryland and California to save them from total disaster.

Both parties acknowledge that victories at the gubernatorial and Senate level could pull their candidates over the line in some of the 75 or so competitive House races on a playing field that, while still favoring the GOP, is growing even more volatile as Election Day nears.

Coattails also could influence statehouse races nationwide. And the party that controls the legislature controls the redrawing of congressional districts for the next decade. Democrats are in charge of 60 of 98 state House and Senate chambers; the GOP is confident of gains. Legislatures are controlled by a narrow majority in several states, including Nevada, Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania — all states that have high-profile statewide races.

From coast to coast, Republicans have the upper hand in races and are likely to gain seats up and down the ballot given a troubling climate for Democrats. The GOP is looking to its strength among gubernatorial nominees, in particular, to help it pick up the 40 seats it needs to win power in the House. It’s more likely than the Senate to change hands; the GOP would need to gain 10 seats there.

“In a midterm election where turnout could be a key factor in deciding which party holds a majority in Congress, enthusiasm for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket will benefit Republicans in battleground districts,” said Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas, the chairman of the House Republicans’ campaign committee.

But David Plouffe, a Democratic National Committee senior adviser, predicted that Democrats will do better than expected in key races. Said Plouffe: “If we continue to show progress gradually … we’re going to win some of these close elections. We’re going to surprise people.”

Republican and Democratic strategists say House control is up for grabs, with races growing more competitive as voters pay closer attention and Democrats rally behind their candidates.

Both parties are shifting strategies daily; Republicans are broadening their footprint to more Democratic-held districts, while Democrats are narrowing their focus in hopes of hanging onto a slim majority.

In a midterm election, gubernatorial and Senate races boost turnout, and many people still vote a straight ticket for a party, not a person. That’s true of both die-hard Democrats and Republicans who turn out in heavier numbers than unaffiliated voters in midterms and others who may be well-versed in the big races but know little about other contests.

The GOP has significant opportunities to win governorships across the Great Lakes states, a recession-weary region where Democratic House candidates are in jeopardy. Polls also show Republicans favored to take the biggest prizes in other states with competitive House races.