New York ? Could the Dow set a record high next year?

That question would have seemed crazy early last year when fear and panic enveloped the stock market and the Dow Jones industrial average plunged to 6,547 on March 9. Many investors thought it would take a decade or longer to get back to the record of 14,165, set on Oct. 9, 2007.

Now we could be on the verge. The Dow has soared 76 percent the past 21 months, and it would have to climb just 23 percent from Friday’s close of 11,492 to set a record.

That’s a big jump, but the Dow has risen 23 percent or more six times since 1985, or roughly 1 in 4 years. Two other years, the Dow just missed with a gain of 22.6 percent. Add them and the number becomes eight years out of 25, or roughly 1 in 3.

Many analysts don’t expect a 23 percent gain in 2011, but they agree conditions are in place for the rally to continue.

“There are some really compelling reasons out there that say the Dow could approach its highs,” says Randy Bateman, chief investment officer for Huntington Asset Advisors. “You’ve got a fairly rosy scenario, where there isn’t a whole lot of competition for stocks.”

Corporate bonds provide decent income but lack the potential of stocks to appreciate. Interest rates on cash investments, such as bank CDs and money market mutual funds, remain in the basement. Meanwhile, corporate earnings keep rising, which makes stocks more appealing. Companies also are sitting on a record amount of cash, giving them leeway to pay bigger dividends, buy their own stock or buy competitors.

The economy could help, too. The Great Recession ended in June of last year, so this economic expansion is only one and a half years old. Expansions since World War II have lasted an average of nearly five years. The Dow doesn’t always rise the year a recovery marks its second anniversary. But the last time it did so, in 2003, the Dow jumped 25 percent. This expansion has been fitful so far. If it finally gains traction next year, stocks could do well.