The oversized manila envelope with the return address of the Baseball Writers Association of America has arrived in the mail, which means it’s time for annual agonizing.

Inside the envelope is an official 2006 Hall of Fame ballot.

Twenty-nine names are listed next to a box. Each voter can check anywhere from zero to 10 boxes. If a player receives votes on 75 percent or more of returned ballots, he’s on his way to Cooperstown.

Right off the bat, I look at the names, group them into four categories (no-way Joses, long shots, maybes, definites) and then study the data.

No-way Joses: The first cuts were Rick Aguilera, Will Clark, Gary DiSarcina, Alex Fernandez, Gary Gaetti, Ozzie Guillen, Gregg Jefferies, Doug Jones, Hal Morris, Walt Weiss and John Wetteland.

That leaves 18. The long shots: Steve Garvey, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser, Don Mattingly and Willie McGee. Garvey and McGee weren’t special enough, and Gooden, Hershiser and Mattingly weren’t great for long enough, thanks to bum shoulders for the pitchers, a bum back for Mattingly, and, in the case of Gooden, cocaine.

We’re down to 13, all maybes: Albert Belle, Bert Blyleven, Davey Concepcion, Andre Dawson, Goose Gossage, Tommy John, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter and Alan Trammell.

The best of the bunch? Morris. He placed in the top 10 in Cy Young voting seven times, and led the 1980s in wins, complete games and innings pitched. He delivered one of the greatest clutch performances in the history of the game with a 10-inning, 1-0 win in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series for the Twins, one of three teams (’84 Tigers, ’92 Blue Jays) he helped pitch to a championship. Morris made 14 opening-day starts, tied with Steve Carlton and Walter Johnson for second-most in history to Tom Seaver (16).

In a close call, Tommy John, with three 20-win seasons and a place in medical history, gets my vote. Bert Blyleven, with one 20-win season, does not. Contrary to popular belief, Blyleven didn’t always pitch for losers. The average record of his teams was 79-80.

Rice gets my vote. Belle, Dawson, Murphy and Parker don’t. Rice had the highest slugging percentage and on-base percentage of the group, excluding Belle, who wasn’t great long enough and produced his numbers in the statistical (and muscle) inflation era. Rice finished in the top five in MVP voting six times, including a first-place finish in 1978, when he produced more total bases than any player since Stan Musial 30 years earlier. Dawson, a near-miss, was a better fielder and baserunner than Rice, but not as consistent a hitter.

Among closers, I voted for Bruce Sutter (five top-10 finishes in MVP voting, won the Cy Young once and had four other top-five finishes, revolutionized game with split-fingered fastball) and Goose Gossage (five times in top six in Cy Young voting, postseason dominance) and didn’t vote for Lee Smith (three times in top five in Cy Young voting).

Davey Concepcion had some glove at short, but wasn’t Ozzie Smith. Not many shortstops hit like Alan Trammell, but he was no Cal Ripken.

The five boxes I checked, in order of their worthiness: 1. Morris; 2. Sutter; 3. Gossage; 4. Rice; 5. John.