Boom or bust?

Scouts, GMs not sold on how Young, Leinart translate as NFL QBs

? Three months ago, Vince Young and Matt Leinart were the darlings of the NFL’s fickle fraternity of talent evaluators. Young was Michael Vick squared. Leinart was the perfect cross between Tom Brady and Joe Montana. Both were can’t-miss Top 3 picks.

But in the 111 days since Young rang up a record 467 yards in Texas’ win over USC in the Rose Bowl, and Leinart capped a fairy-tale career that included back-to-back national titles and a Heisman Trophy, the two QBs have been portrayed by scouts and GMs more as the next Heath Shuler and David Klingler than the next Dan Marino and John Elway.

With four days until the NFL Draft and assorted Wonderlic and combine controversies behind us, one question begs asking: Is the NFL putting too much emphasis on the offseason process and getting away from selecting players based on their production?

“We poke and we prod,” Bears GM Jerry Angelo says. “Given that we have only seven picks, given the money, these are very valued commodities. You have to do your due diligence. If you don’t, you put yourself at risk. It’s hard enough to project players just based on their talent. You are also projecting character. You want to make sure you know every nuance about the guy.”

In effect, from the time the college football season ends until the draft arrives, the 255 players who will be drafted on Saturday and Sunday have been on extended job interviews with 32 prospective employers. The teams ask a lot of the same questions, run them through a lot of the same drills, but all want their own separate information.

Three years ago, on his tour of 13 teams that kept him away from home for 4 1/2 weeks, one team asked Osi Umenyiora, who would be drafted in the second round by the Giants, “Do you really want to play football?”

But isn’t this type of intense scrutiny grueling for players?

“Without question,” Angelo says. “It’s an interrogation. It should be. This is a job interview. Lives are at stake. It needs to be exasperating and it is.”

But some say the negativity that comes along with that type of scrutiny must be kept in perspective.

“You’ve got to be careful about that,” Texans GM Charley Casserly says. “You don’t want to be too negative on players.”

NFL GMs and scouts appear to have too much time between the end of the season and draft day, and they use every minute in the four months to dissect a player from head to toe, from kindergarten to chemistry class. They are always on the lookout for the negative, whether it’s a throwing motion or cutting a class. They want to know everything.

“It’s smart,” Redskins coach Joe Gibbs says. “If you are going to make an investment of millions and millions of dollars, you would research them.”

A four-month gap between the Rose Bowl and this year's NFL Draft has meant plenty of time for scouts and general managers to find fault with Texas quarterback Vince Young, who remains a projected top-five pick come Saturday.

The league has come a long way from the days when teams would draft from lists in Street and Smith’s. Nothing is secret anymore, not when players at the top require investments of $15 million-$20 million.

Because of that heightened caution, the deconstruction of Leinart and Young has been as thorough as any ever.

The knocks on Leinart:

He’s too Hollywood and lacks passion for football. More concerned about holding up an Oscar than the Lombardi Trophy. The class he took for his final two credits at USC? Ballroom dancing.

Not a great athlete.

Lacks a great arm.

His success is the product of playing with great players.

“The whole thing with arm strength and he’s not athletic, I answered all that stuff (at USC’s pro day April 2),” Leinart says. “They try to find little things. They say it was the system or the players I was surrounded by. Yeah, obviously, I’ll be the first to admit that I was blessed with great players around me. But look at Joe Montana. He had Jerry Rice, the greatest receiver to ever play.”

Still, the Saints, picking second, were wary enough of Young and Leinart that they elected to sign free-agent Drew Brees, who is coming off shoulder surgery.

The knocks on Young:

Bombed on the Wonderlic intelligence test, so can he digest an NFL playbook?

Played exclusively out of the shotgun at Texas.

Funky sidearm delivery.

Considered a two-year project.

“It’s the old ‘Don’t win the New Hampshire primary’ theory,” Giants GM Ernie Accorsi says. “They gave Peyton Manning the Heisman Trophy before he ever played a down his senior year. All everybody did was take shots at him the whole way through his senior year. You don’t want to be the frontrunner because that is what they do.”

History is also working against Leinart and Young.

In the last 20 drafts, 46 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round, including three in the supplemental draft. Only two of them have won the Super Bowl for the team that drafted them: Troy Aikman in ’92, ’93 and ’95, and Ben Roethlisberger last season. Aikman, the first pick in 1989, is the only quarterback taken in the top five of the last 20 drafts to win the Super Bowl.

“Everyone is looking for negatives,” Leinart says. “They all know the positives. Everyone knows what I have accomplished as a quarterback. Truthfully, they are thinking, ‘What more do we need to know about this kid that is bad?”‘

It can wear a player down, right?

“No. I smile,” Young says. “That is motivation for me.”

Bucs coach Jon Gruden, who gushed about Leinart and Young recently, said, “a lot of people are picking at (Young) and trying to talk him down around nine or 10,” by criticizing his throws and his test score. “He’ll probably be there for us at 23, don’t you think?”

Gruden was being sarcastic to make a point. There is no chance of Young slipping that far.

Young’s stock has fluctuated wildly in the last two months, but has never crashed. He could go third to the Titans, seventh to the Raiders or 10th to the Cardinals. It would be a huge surprise if he drops out of the top 10.

“When they come out to Pro Day like I had at my school . . . that is when I like to answer a lot of people that say negative things about Vince,” Young says.

Leinart could go third to the Titans, but no lower than seventh to the Raiders. He probably would have been the No. 1 pick by the 49ers if he came out last year. The Jets, picking fourth, are not interested in taking Leinart, Young or Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler that high. The risk is too great – and the financial commitment too much after they gave Chad Pennington $18 million guaranteed less than two years ago.

Accorsi thought the Wonderlic fiasco, where reports of Young scoring as low as six on the IQ test, was unfair. “If you look at his play, he made a lot of great decisions in that (USC) game,” he says. “When to run. When to pass. He was basically running the whole show on that last drive. I felt so bad for him. Whoever let that out, how it got out – it’s unconscionable. Kids are going to start refusing to take (the Wonderlic).”

After all these months of running 40s, vertical jumps, workouts in T-shirts and shorts, and filling in answers with a No. 2 pencil, teams can never lose sight of what’s really important: How players perform in games.

“The gymnastic stuff is all wonderful,” Giants coach Tom Coughlin says. “But they got to be able to play.”

Certainly, teams such as the Jets have studied the shaky performances of QBs taken in the top five and convinced themselves that they can uncover the next Brady, a sixth-round pick in 2000, the 199th player taken. There may never be another Brady, but everybody is looking for him.

“In the end, these guys will go where they are supposed to go,” Angelo says. “It’s just the process. It’s not like it’s stupid or there is a better formula.”

No Troy story, too

It’s risky taking a quarterback at the top. No quarterback drafted after Troy Aikman and picked in the top five has gone on to win the Super Bowl. Here’s how the 18 quarterbacks taken in the top five since Aikman have fared. (Draft position listed parenthetically).

1990

Jeff George, Colts (1)

Tremendous arm. Threw 154 TDs, but had reputation as being uncoachable.

1993

Drew Bledsoe, Patriots (1)

Made it to Super Bowl in fourth year and lost. When Pats finally won it, he was on bench and then traded. Has 244 TDs, 43,447 yards.

Rick Mirer, Seahawks (2)

Played 11 years for five teams and never came close to living up to expectations as next Joe Montana.

1994

Heath Shuler, Redskins (3)

Played 19 games in three years during injury-plagued career.

1995

Steve McNair, Titans (3)

Has played with ton of injuries and heart. Had great Super Bowl vs. Rams, coming within yard of sending game into OT with spectacular late drive.

Kerry Collins, Panthers (5)

Led Panthers to NFC title in second year of existence. Overcame drinking problems to turn life around and lead Giants to Super Bowl in 2000.

1998

Peyton Manning, Colts (1)

So far, can’t win big one, which haunted him in college, too. Set NFL record with 49 TD passes in 2004 and is best QB in NFL today.

Ryan Leaf, Chargers (2)

Handful of teams would have taken him over Manning. Leaf is all-time draft bust. Was 4-17 as starter.

1999

Tim Couch, Browns (1)

Supposed to be foundation for expansion Browns, but quickly became bust.

Donovan McNabb, Eagles (2)

In seven seasons has been to four NFC title games and a Super Bowl. Easily best of class of ’99 QBs, which had five in first 12 picks.

Akili Smith, Bengals (3)

Lasted four years, played in just 21 games and he’s out of NFL.

2001

Michael Vick, Falcons (1)

Perhaps most dangerous running QB of all-time, but needs to prove he can win games with arm.

2002

David Carr, Texans (1)

Lots of talent, but no protection (208 sacks in four years). Has not made team better. Reggie Bush should help.

Joey Harrington, Lions (3)

Another bust. In four seasons, was 18-37 with 60 TDs and 62 INTs.

2003

Carson Palmer, Bengals (1)

Emerged last season as one of best (32 TDs, 12 INTs), leading Cincy to playoffs for first time since 1990.

2004

Eli Manning, Giants (1)

Led Giants to NFL East title in second season, but must improve on accuracy and decision-making.

Philip Rivers, Chargers (4)

Now that Drew Brees is gone, he gets off bench (30 passes in two seasons) and has to produce right away.

2005

Alex Smith, 49ers (1)

He was 2-5 as a rookie – won his last two – with a TD and 11 INTs.

A look at some of the top-five quarterback selections since 1990:

The Good …

1998

Peyton Manning, Colts (1)

Set NFL record with 49 TD passes in 2004 and is best QB in NFL today.

1999

Donovan McNabb, Eagles (2)

In seven seasons has been to four NFC title games and a Super Bowl.

The BAD …

1993

Rick Mirer, Seahawks (2)

Played 11 years for five teams and never came close to living up to expectations as next Joe Montana.

2002

Joey Harrington, Lions (3)

Another bust. In four seasons, was 18-37 with 60 TDs and 62 INTs.

The Ugly

1994

Heath Shuler, Redskins (3)

Played 19 games in three years during injury-plagued career.

1998

Ryan Leaf, Chargers (2)

Handful of teams would have taken him over Manning. Leaf is all-time draft bust. Was 4-17 as starter.