Revised wheat forecast down 9 percent, but still higher than last year

? The 2005 Kansas wheat crop may not be quite the bin-buster expected just a month ago, but the government’s lower production forecast issued Friday remains optimistic.

Kansas farmers are expected to harvest 384 million bushels of wheat, the Kansas Agricultural Statistics Service reported.

The revised estimate is down 9 percent from a month ago, reflecting damage from late spring frosts and widespread disease. Even so, this wheat crop is projected to be 22 percent bigger last year’s drought-plagued harvest.

This year’s crop will be harvested from 9.6 million acres, 1.1 million acres more than was cut last year.

Yield per harvested acre likely will average 40 bushels. That is down 4 bushels an acre from last month, but still 3 bushels more than the 2004 yield, KASS said.

Nationwide, winter wheat production is forecast at 1.55 billion acres. The new estimate is down 3 percent from last month, but still 3 percent above the 2004 crop. The average yield is forecast at 44.1 bushels per acre.

Most regions of Kansas are expected to have a better crop this year, although production likely will be down in east-central and southeast Kansas, according to the report.

The most dramatic production increase is expected in northwest Kansas, where 2004 crops were ravaged by the long drought followed by harvest rains. This year that region’s crop is expected to be 421 percent over the previous year.

Also doing far better this year is west-central Kansas, where production is projected at 240 percent over last year.

In southwest Kansas, it is projected to be 136 percent higher.