Topeka ? It’s a parlor game that never really ends.

Republicans already are speculating about who will seek the GOP nomination in 2006 to challenge Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Though no prominent Republican has announced plans, the list of potential candidates includes Atty. Gen. Phill Kline, Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, Kansas House Speaker Doug Mays and U.S. Reps. Todd Tiahrt and Jerry Moran.

Behind the talk is the knowledge that Sebelius will be a formidable opponent. Any serious GOP candidate will do better to get started by the summer or early fall.

“I would be talking to party leaders now, trying to get financial commitments over the next few months,” said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, which watches gubernatorial contests.

Sebelius hasn’t announced whether she plans to seek a second term, but legislators and political activists generally assume it’s a safe bet.

“I really love this job,” Sebelius said during a recent interview. “I ran for governor because I want to be governor.”

In interviews, neither Kline nor Thornburgh ruled out seeking the GOP nomination.

Thornburgh said he was likely to make a decision by the time the Legislature adjourned its session in May. Kline said he was focusing on being attorney general but would make a decision about his future sometime during the summer.

Moran has said it’s too early for him to consider his future, and Tiahrt has indicated his decision would depend on who else gets in the race.

Mays said he’s preparing for the session, which convenes Jan. 10, not thinking about his future.

Still, Mays said, “Anybody who doesn’t begin to make a move by this summer probably doesn’t have a chance.”

Vulnerabilities perceived

At first, Sebelius would seem vulnerable in 2006 for the very reason she’s received some attention nationally — being a Democratic governor in a state with a strong Republican tradition.

Kansas has about 780,000 registered Republicans, and they outnumber Democrats by about 326,000. President Bush carried Kansas with 62 percent of the vote.

In addition, Sebelius has proposed major tax increases. A year ago, she advocated phasing in more than $300 million in taxes over three years to benefit public schools, and this year, her health care plan would increase the state’s cigarette tax by 50 cents a pack, to $1.29.

Both Thornburgh and Kline say they think Sebelius will be vulnerable on tax issues. But Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, D-Topeka, suggested much would depend on the debate on education funding, expected to dominate the legislative session.

“I don’t think she has any strong negatives to look at, at this point in her term,” Hensley said.

Whether Sebelius is vulnerable or not, Republicans concede she’s likely to have plenty of money. She raised more than $4 million for her 2002 campaign, a record.

“I would think that she would have a serious fund-raising advantage, unless there’s somebody out there who can throw their own money into a race,” Thornburgh said. “I think you’ve got to plan on it that she’s going to have $6 million to $7 million in the bank.”

Divided GOP

And, of course, fighting among Kansas Republicans is a tradition as grand and old as the GOP. Internal tensions already were decades old when conservatives battled Bull Moose progressives backing Teddy Roosevelt in the 1912 presidential election.

“The bottom line is always, can Republicans get their act together and find a candidate the party can unite behind?” Rothenberg said.

Sebelius successfully exploited GOP tensions in 2002 in defeating a conservative GOP nominee, State Treasurer Tim Shallenburger. She also had enough money to begin television advertising in late July and keep broadcasting spots for three solid months, burnishing her image. Republicans anticipate the same tactics in 2006.