Does John Kerry have a prayer in Kansas?

Kansans pick Democrats only in times of crisis

It’s late election night and President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are locked in a tug-of-war to get the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House.

In key swing states, each campaign has thousands of suits on the ground ready to start lawyering for their candidate.

Television anchors are sweating over their electoral college maps when a news alert comes in that Kansas — quiet, Republican, Midwestern Kansas with its six electoral votes — goes to Kerry and makes him the next president.

“It would be awesome,” said Democrat Jill Docking, of Wichita, the Kerry campaign surrogate in Kansas. “I would be the first to uncork the champagne.”

But, Docking says, Kerry’s chances of winning Kansas are slim and none.

Numbers and history are the steep obstacles for Kansas Democrats.

The state is overwhelmingly Republican. Of Kansas’ 1.6 million registered voters, 46 percent are registered Republican, 26.8 percent Democrat and 26.3 percent unaffiliated. The remainder is made up of various minor parties.

The state is seldom attracted to national Democrats, although Kansans have approved of Democratic presidential candidates during times of political upheaval.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Kansas was President Johnson in 1964, when he defeated Republican Barry Goldwater. Before that, it was in the Great Depression, when Kansans sided with Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936.

“Obviously, in times of great national crisis people can get up and say ‘Republicans are not doing their job,'” said Washburn University political science professor Loran Smith. “So, the question is, do we have a great national crisis and a great national election?”

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry addresses a crowd at a rally Sunday in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Kerry's chances for winning Kansas are slim, many say, but Kansans have voted for Democratic presidents in the past, including Lyndon Johnson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

When asked if Kerry could win Kansas, State Republican executive director Scott Poor laughed.

He said the latest tracking poll showed Bush ahead by 19 percentage points. That’s a landslide and the closest the polls have had the contest in Kansas this campaign season. In 2000, Bush swamped Democrat Al Gore in Kansas 58 percent to 37 percent.

“It’s good because we are solidly Republican, but it’s bad because it would be nice to see some of these politicians floating through the state every once in awhile,” Poor said.

While Bush and Kerry haven’t spent any money campaigning in Kansas, they have visited the state.

In May, both Bush and Kerry were in Topeka for the opening of the Brown v. Board of Education National Historical Site.

On Aug. 7, Kerry and Edwards rolled through Lawrence on a campaign train, and said they felt so bad for not stopping that Edwards came back the next day and gave two speeches.

Vice President Dick Cheney was in Overland Park in August for a breakfast for Republican congressional candidate Kris Kobach.

But those brief touchdowns in the Sunflower State are a far cry from the barnstorming in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, which the presidential candidates have visited scores of times, almost on a daily basis in recent weeks.

Still, Kansas Democrats remain hopeful they can make gains in the Nov. 2 election.

After all, in the most recent statewide election, Democrat Kathleen Sebelius won the governor’s race.

Kathleen Daughety, president of the Young Democrats group at Kansas University, said she thought more moderate Republicans and independents were considering Democratic candidates.

“With the Republican Party of Kansas moving so far to the right, I think there is going to be a move toward more progressive candidates in the future,” said Daughety, a junior from Topeka.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., speaks Sunday at a rally in Boca Raton, Fla. Although Kansas is traditionally a Republican state, Kerry has stopped twice here during the presidential campaign.

Docking said further evidence of increasing Democratic strength could be seen in the money raised in Kansas for the Kerry ticket. The Kerry campaign has been “shocked at how well we’ve done,” she said. Docking said she didn’t have an exact count but said several hundred thousand dollars were raised for Kerry in Kansas.

And the Democrats said despite the fact Kansas probably would end up in Bush’s column, there are still plenty of competitive Democrats in downballot races for Congress, the Legislature, State Board of Education and local contests.

“Kansas voters are willing to split their vote, but those decisions are based on knowing someone and understanding their politics,” Daughety said.