Topeka ? After weeks of debate, hearings, arguments and political maneuvers, it comes down to simple arithmetic.

If supporters of a constitutional ban on gay marriage get 84 votes in the House today, the proposition will be placed before voters in November.

“I think it is probably going to pass,” said Bob Hanson, pastor of Shawnee Heights Baptist Church in Topeka, who has been a regular around the Capitol lately, urging support of the proposal.

If it does succeed in the House and is placed on the ballot, Hanson said he was looking forward to getting “engaged” in the debate before the November decision.

Most observers say it will probably be approved by a majority of voters if put before them.

In an earlier version, the prohibition on gay marriage received 88 votes in the House.

“I think it’s going to be very close,” Rep. Paul Davis, D-Lawrence, said. He said some moderate Republicans might change their minds from the previous vote.

Saturday’s 27-13 vote in the Senate probably gave a preview of what the public debate would focus on if the measure made it to the ballot box.

Supporters argued the amendment was necessary to protect traditional marriage from changing opinions about the institution of marriage and possible court challenges.

But opponents argued the state already had a law prohibiting same-sex marriage and placing the ban in the state constitution would not immunize it from a federal court challenge.

The proposed constitutional amendment, opponents say, is simply being used as a wedge issue to energize the religious right for the coming elections.