Week off, home field give Patriots advantage

Indianapolis should slip past Kansas City in matchup of potent offenses, leaky defenses

In one of the best games of the NFL’s regular season, the Tennessee Titans went to Foxboro Oct. 5 and lost to the New England Patriots, 38-30.

When the Titans return Saturday for a second-round playoff game, they will be trying to do what no team has done since — score a meaningful touchdown at New England. In six home games since facing the Titans, the Patriots have three shutouts, and the only TD they allowed came late in an easy win over Jacksonville.

The Patriots are favored by six points. Here’s why:

  • That home record.
  • Their week off — they’re rested and fit.
  • Titans quarterback Steve McNair’s wobbly legs — he was healthy the first time they played the Patriots.

But it won’t be that easy for New England, in part because playoff rematches rarely resemble regular-season meetings.

Indianapolis, for example, lost by 14 to Denver late in the regular season, then won by 31 in the playoffs. Carolina lost to Dallas by four, then beat the Cowboys by 19.

“They ran the ball very well against us, which was embarrassing when we looked at the tape,” Titans coach Jeff Fisher says. “But we have corrected those things since then.”

Indeed they have. Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis, whose 2,066 yards in the regular season were the second most in NFL history, had just 35 yards on 14 carries against the Titans last week. Then again, that was with Anthony Wright at quarterback, a far cry from Tom Brady.

The game should be close and the scoring much lower than the first time.

But …

PATRIOTS, 17-13

Green Bay (plus 5 1/2) at Philadelphia

The Philly fans are worried more about the Packers than the Rams, the presumed opponent in the NFC championship game.

And they probably should be worried more about Ahman Green than Brett Favre. The Eagles have problems stopping the run, and Green led the NFC with 1,883 yards.

Philadelphia also will be without Brian Westbrook, its second most important offensive player. Most important, of course, is Donovan McNabb, who engineered the last-minute drive that beat the Packers 17-14 in Green Bay Nov. 10.

Another negative for the Eagles: They’ve lost three times at home.

Even with all that …

EAGLES, 27-20

Indianapolis (plus 3) at Kansas City

The Chiefs have a history of losing opening playoff games at home, although Arrowhead is a hard place for road teams to play.

Assuming the weather is decent, this will be high scoring — Peyton Manning and his cohorts against a leaky Kansas City defense; Priest Holmes et al against an Indy D that’s not much better.

COLTS, 34-33

Carolina (plus 7 1/2) at St. Louis

Carolina’s defense was immovable against Dallas and is the Panthers’ main hope here — Marc Bulger has been prone to turnovers.

But the Rams have won their last 14 home games, and their speed on turf is tremendous, on offense and defense. Add in the Rams’ playoff experience and their week off and …

RAMS, 27-10

Last week: 2-2 (spread); 3-1 (straight up)

Regular season: 143-108-5 (spread); 162-94 (straight up)