San Francisco ? After three years of fear and loathing, are investors ready to embrace the initial public offerings of seductive startups again? As they do with so many other things in modern life, lots of people are counting on Google to supply the answer.

The maker of world’s most popular Internet search engine is widely expected to make its stock market debut during the first half of 2004, creating a level of excitement rarely seen since the dot-com gold rush turned Silicon Valley into the mother lode of IPO ecstasy and agony.

If the IPO market recaptures some of its lost luster in the coming year, the nation’s recovering economy might just bask in the afterglow.

That’s because a vibrant IPO market would spawn more companies able to use their publicly traded stocks as a currency to buy other businesses and attract more talented employees.

A more receptive audience for IPOs emboldens venture capitalists to invest more in startups — a phenomenon that in turn encourages entrepreneurs to put more energy into developing innovative ideas.

But the IPO market has been in a rut since the dot-com bubble burst and a series of influence-peddling scandals fed a perception that the system had been rigged to produce big gains for a privileged few, leaving other investors to wallow in the slop left behind.

From January 2001 through December 2003, there were 238 IPOs, according to IPOfinancial.com, which tracks the market. It’s a sobering contrast to the froth of the bubble years — from 1998 through 2000 there were a total 1,250 IPOs, according to IPOfinancial.com.

An eye-popping deal like Google’s could be enough to help snap the IPO lull, said Michael Moe, chief executive of ThinkEquity, a high-tech investment bank in San Francisco.

“A lot of investors put their hands on a hot oven and got burned so they are being very careful about going close to the oven again,” Moe said. “Google’s IPO could be the catalyst that helps bring people back.”

Other market observers are less sanguine, characterizing Google as a rare jewel amid the high-tech rubble.

Google founders Sergey Brin, left, and Larry Page are expected to make a public stock offering of the world's most popular Internet search engine during the first half of 2004. The initial stock offering could re-energize an IPO market that has been down since the late 1990s.

High-tech companies simply don’t hold the same allure as they did before the excruciating pain the dot-com crash caused investors, said David Menlow, IPOfinancial’s president.

Companies in staid industries such as freighting, steel and finance might even be more appealing to cautious investors than unproven tech companies with greater growth potential.

“Investors are still twitchy,” Menlow said. “They want to see a certain crispness from companies selling IPOs. They are no longer interested in companies with some esoteric business model.”

For its part, Mountain View-based Google isn’t discussing its IPO plans, citing federal securities laws.

Google’s silence hasn’t stopped other tongues from wagging, however, about an IPO likely to value the 5-year-old company in the $20 billion range and transform many of its 1,300 employees into millionaires. Google’s co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, probably will be minted as billionaires before they turn 31 next year.

“There is a lot of wishful thinking going on about Google’s IPO, but I don’t understand why,” said Jonathan Silver, managing director of Core Capital Partners, a Washington D.C. venture capital firm.

“Even if Google’s IPO really pops and the company winds up being worth $100 billion, so what? It’s not like there are a lot of other promising companies ready to go (IPO) after that train has left the station.”

In fact, hundreds of other once-promising startups have disintegrated while Google has thrived. Although the company hasn’t yet disclosed its financial statements, Google already is profitable, with revenue this year believed to range between $700 million and $1 billion.

Finances aren’t the only factors working in Google’s favor — with millions of loyal users, the search engine already has built a brand that’s the envy of long-established businesses.

It’s a pedigree few, if any, other startups can bring to an IPO.