Tsunami strike unlikely but could happen in U.S.

Don Steeples has some new material for his Kansas University course on earthquakes and natural disasters.

Steeples, a professor of geology, said those in his field had been buzzing since a magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck beneath the Indian Ocean, sending a tsunami to Asian countries that killed tens of thousands of people.

It’s also brewed plenty of speculation over whether a similar disaster could strike the United States.

Count Steeples among the experts who say it could happen, mostly likely in the Pacific Northwest. But he said he didn’t think the destruction or loss of human life would be nearly as bad as suffered in Asia this week.

“We have a pretty decent warning system,” Steeples said. “Within 10 or 15 minutes you could issue a tsunami warning in this country. We’re fairly well coordinated with civil defense systems, to where you can set off sirens within tens of seconds all up and down the West Coast.”

The most destructive tsunami in recent American history was in 1964, when 11 people died in Crescent City, Calif., and four in Newport, Ore., after a magnitude 9.2 earthquake near Alaska. And Steeples said it’s only a matter of time until something similar happens on the West Coast. The biggest threat, he said, is to the Seattle area.

But warning systems in place, which use seismometers monitoring the ocean floors, as well as the fact most buildings along American coastlines are protected by embankments, would mean far less devastation in the United States, he said.

This week’s tidal waves may have blindsided thousands who live along Asia’s coastline, Steeples said, but most geologists figured something like this would happen eventually.

“It’s not at all surprising to those of us who study this sort of thing,” he said.

An aerial view shows the waterfront section of Hilo Island of Hawaii, where a tidal wave hit April 1, 1946. Scientists say grinding geologic circumstances similar to those in Sumatra also exist just off the Pacific Northwest coast. They are a loaded gun that could trigger a tsunami that could hit Northern California, Washington, Oregon and British Columbia in minutes.

Rick Miller, an associate scientist at the Kansas Geological Survey who studies earthquakes, wasn’t surprised, either.

Miller said other strong earthquakes have hit ocean areas and dissipated without causing much damage. This one was especially devastating for several reasons:

The earthquake occurred in deep waters.
The water becomes more shallow rapidly as it heads to shore.
So many people live along the coasts in the area.

“It was just a perfect setting for it,” he said.

The East Coast of the United States, Miller said, is generally safe from tsunamis because the major fault lines in the Atlantic Ocean are midway between the United States and Europe. Miller said he didn’t think the West Coast would be particularly susceptible to tsunamis, either.

“For the most part, it’s not a major threat for us,” he said. “There are outside chances — remote possibilities — that could happen.”

Steeples isn’t scheduled to teach the earthquakes and natural disasters course again until spring 2006. By then, he said, there should be plenty of research on the tsunami.

“This one,” he said, “will be in the textbooks.”