Want a good picture of where the race for president stands?

Might surprise you.

Forget about all the national polls showing a close up-and-down Kerry/Bush contest.

State polls are fun, including two new ones in Pennsylvania, the Keystone Poll and the Quinnipiac Poll. But, heck, that’s just one state.

No siree, what you need is a look at all the states, but state-by-state, so you can figure out electoral votes.

You might recall from the last election the Electoral College determines the president.

Al Gore beat Bush by half-a-million votes (543,895 to be exact), but Bush won the presidency by winning more electoral votes — the number of votes apportioned each state on the basis of population.

And this number, when projected from polls done within each state, shows a race very different from numbers in national samples.

Two Web sites, one pro-Kerry, one pro-Bush, are tracking state polls, then assigning corresponding electoral votes and showing results on color-coded maps.

Both show Kerry way ahead.

On the pro-Kerry site, www.electoral-vote.com, for example, Kerry has 317 electoral votes (270 are needed to win) and Bush 202.

On the pro-Bush site, www.electionprojection.com, Kerry has 327 and Bush 211.

This is based on strong Kerry leads in large states such as New York, Illinois and California, which together total 107 electoral votes, and weak Kerry leads in key states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, which count for another 68 electoral votes.

Kerry also holds slim leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Missouri, which offer a total 48 electoral votes.

Solace, I’d suggest for the Kerry camp.

Especially when contrasted to national polls offering solace for either camp.

A Zogby Poll has Kerry up 7 percent; Gallup has Bush up 3; Time has Kerry up 7; and CNN/USA Today has Bush up 4.

How do pollsters like tracking the electoral count?

“Oh, it’s a rip,” says Pennsylvania Keystone Poll director G. Terry Madonna. “They use real numbers from real polls” and get a “more valid” measure of the race than national polling.

Clay Richards of the Quinnipiac Poll is concerned that not all polling in all states is solid, but says, “The idea is sound.”

Predictably, the campaigns aren’t sold.

Pennsylvania Kerry director Tony Podesta says, “It’s graphically interesting, clever, well-done … it’s August and too early to order inauguration tickets.”

Kevin Madden of the Bush campaign says, “It’s an interesting snapshot analysis but it fluctuates, too, and the most important poll is on Election Day.”

Does this stuff mean much at this point? Probably not. Things happen. Things change.

But a look at the only numbers that count, electoral votes in key states, gives a better picture than single polls of where things stand.

And today that picture favors Kerry a whole lot more than President Bush.

— John Baer is a columnist for the Philadelphia Daily News. His e-mail address is baerj@phillynews.com.