San Francisco ? Almost every outside assumption being made about the California recall election is contradicted by what I learned during a week of interviewing in Los Angeles, Sacramento and here.

Take the question of timing. The assumption is that embattled Gov. Gray Davis would have a better chance of beating the recall if courts decide to postpone the voting from Oct. 7 until the regular primary next March. But many Democrats, including some in his own circle, think the sooner the dice are rolled, the better.

In March, the ballot is likely to include a referendum on the measure, passed by the Democratic Legislature and signed by Davis, permitting illegal aliens to obtain driver’s licenses. It’s an emotional issue, likely to pull a conservative turnout, and not one on which Davis would prefer to stake his tenure.

Another point: State employee contracts come up in January. Given his dependence on union support, Davis will have a hard time holding the line on raises. But any breaks he gives them can be depicted as costing the taxpayers more money, and he’s already facing a tax revolt.

Take the related question of turnout. The assumption is that a hot contest for the party’s presidential nomination on the March primary ballot will boost Democratic turnout — and Davis will benefit. But pollsters doing daily tracking on the recall tell me that Davis fares no better in an enlarged turnout than in a small one. One reason is that the recall is favored by more than one in five Democrats — including almost half those who call themselves moderate or conservative. The disgruntled Democrats tend to be younger, lower in income and education — more men than women. They are likely to be turned off by Davis’ basic strategy of appealing to core Democrats — including gays, women and minorities — and to turn out against him.

These two factors, taken together, explain why Davis himself says he wants an October vote. After a week bracketed by rallies with Bill Clinton and Al Gore — with daily cameos by other national Democrats — Davis was claiming to have turned the tide.

Independent pollsters say their numbers don’t support it. Rather, they show an essentially flat line, with the firm yes vote barely over 50 and the firm no vote double-digits behind. A Public Policy Institute poll released Sunday showed the recall ahead, 53 percent to 42 percent, with only 5 percent undecided. “I think the voters have made that decision,” said one lobbyist who has seen the private polls, “and they’re trying to decide who should replace him.”

Where you find optimism about Davis’ chances, it stems from the belief that none of the replacement candidates has run a strong campaign, and so, the theory goes, voters may shrug their shoulders and say, “Better the devil we know.”

The assumption that Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot, provides the Democrats with an insurance policy — a way to hold the governorship even if Davis is ousted — also is in doubt. Bustamante has been a bust as a candidate, and his acceptance of gobs of Indian casino money has damaged whatever chance he had to attract independent voters. He and Davis, never friends, now are running completely separate and almost antagonistic campaigns.

Another dubious assumption is that “the powers that be” in the GOP will squeeze state Sen. Tom McClintock, the conservative favorite, out of the race before the voting takes place to clear the path for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Senate colleagues in both parties are betting heavily that McClintock will stay, even if polls continue to show him running behind both Bustamante and Schwarzenegger.

“Tommy is a true believer,” said a friend of 20 years’ standing. “He once gave up running for the House, because they convinced him he couldn’t beat Tony Hope, Bob Hope’s son, only to see Hope lose to someone else in the primary. He’ll never make that mistake again.”

And finally, the assumption is that Schwarzenegger’s handlers have kept him out of debates until this week, and exposed him only on such soft news venues as “Oprah” and “Larry King” because they are afraid he will betray his policy ignorance. They certainly have created that impression, but I watched him last week do 25 minutes of news conference Q-and-A with Sacramento reporters who are experts in state government, without breaking a sweat.

Some Republican insiders say the Sept. 13 GOP state convention, dominated by conservatives, should have been McClintock’s show, but Schwarzenegger stole it — and came out with a narrow lead over the tumbling Bustamante in some polls. Pending Wednesday night’s big debate, the assumption that he cannot win with McClintock in the race may be one more belief that needs revision.

David Broder is a columnist for Washington Post Writers Group.