Fears from 9-11 begin to fade

KU researcher says statistics point to improving Lawrence economy

Two years after the 9-11 terrorists attacks, financial consultant Jerry Samp finally has started to see signs that investors are putting the event behind them.

But Samp, branch manager for Lawrence’s A.G. Edwards & Sons, says it has been a slow process.

“The economy is affected a great deal by people’s emotions and what they expect out of the future,” Samp said. “I think this tragedy really caused people to doubt their future. And when you live through a period like that, you’re going to remember it for a number of years.”

Samp, though, said a combination of positive economic reports and a rise in the stock market finally had started to resonate with consumers.

He said he was recently talking with an out-of-state client who sells large boats and yachts. Sales virtually had been nonexistent for the last two years, but the client said the “doors began flying open” on July 15.

“He was wondering why that happened, and the answer was that people started receiving their statements from their stock investments on June 30, and they told a lot better story than they had in quite a while,” Samp said.

Other business managers in Lawrence agreed the effects of 9-11 were becoming less of a factor for their customers. Even in the travel industry, which was hit as hard as any, customers are mentioning it less, said Walt Houk, president of Lawrence-based Travellers Inc.

“Some people say they’re still not interested in traveling, but I’m not sure that is so,” Houk said. “The sales have shown that when the fares get low enough, they’re still interested.”

Houk said safety concerns associated with flying also seemed on the way down.

Jan Houk, travel consultant for Travellers Inc. at 831 Mass., fills racks with brochures. Travellers president Walt Houk said Wednesday that the travel industry hadn't returned to levels seen before the 9-11 terrorist attacks.

“The majority of people aren’t concerned with safety,” Houk said. “They’re concerned with where they’re going to get the money to travel and whether they’re going to have a job in the future.”

Luke Middleton, a research economist with Kansas University’s Policy Research Institute, said most economists were in agreement that a recovery had started.

He said increases in productivity by companies and estimates of growth in the country’s gross domestic product had increased the level of optimism among economists.

“But clearly that optimism isn’t shared by the millions of people who have gone unemployed in the last year or so,” Middleton said. “The jobs issue is still a problem.”

The economic turnaround thus far has been labeled a “jobless recovery” by most economists. Samp said there was a simple reason for that.

“People who run businesses are human beings, and they have been hurt too over the last couple of years,” Samp said. “They want to make darn sure that this is real before they start hiring again.”

Middleton, who watches area economic statistics for the institute, said he thought Lawrence’s economy was improving.

He said the lodging and tourism industry had posted two below-average years and that some builders, particularly those who built upper-end housing, had been hurt.

But he said area unemployment numbers for 2003 had slowly begun to decline to levels not seen since 9-11.

“I think Lawrence, considering everything, is doing fairly well,” Middleton said.

Samp, though, said investors still had questions in the event of another major terrorist attack.

“It was such a shock to our economy, and for so many months now people have been waiting for the next one,” Samp said. “And they’re convinced if the next one happens, we’ll see a similar economic collapse.

“I don’t think that will happen. I think it will be a shock to the market, but it will be more temporary in nature. But I think the guy on the street would still tell you that if we have another 9-11, things will fall apart.”