U.S. plans to reduce troops in Iraq next year

? U.S. military commanders have developed a plan to steadily cut back troop levels in Iraq next year, several senior Army officers said in recent interviews.

There now are 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. The plan to cut that number is well advanced and has been described in broad outline to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld but hasn’t yet been approved by him. It would begin to draw down forces next spring, cutting the number of troops to fewer than 100,000 by next summer and then to 50,000 by mid-2005, officers involved in the planning said.

The plan, which amounts to the first formal military exit strategy for Iraq, is being drawn up to show how the U.S. presence might be reduced without undercutting the stability of the country. Military officials also worry that if they don’t begin cutting the size of the U.S. force, they could damage troop morale, leave the armed forces shorthanded if crises emerge in North Korea or elsewhere, and help create a long-term personnel shortage in the service.

At the same time, some of the people involved in the discussions said they considered the force reduction plan optimistic, as much a goal as a guaranteed outcome. If it is enacted successfully, the troop reductions could reduce political pressure on the Bush administration as the presidential campaign gets fully under way.

The cuts are being planned even as other major changes are being set in motion. Most prominently, preliminary steps have been taken to ease out Army Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, who became the top U.S. commander in Iraq just over four months ago, a senior Army general said. The general predicted that Sanchez won’t be fired but might be promoted next year into a less challenging slot, such as chief of the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees operations in and around South America.

Sanchez, senior officials said, is expected to be replaced sometime next year by Lt. Gen. Thomas Metz, who earlier this year became chief of the Army’s 3rd Corps.

Metz, who is traveling in Iraq, told reporters Friday that he expected U.S. troops to remain in the country until at least 2006.