Carmakers face high inventories

Overflow of vehicles may lead to cut in production

? Sluggish sales to start the year have left automakers sitting on record levels of new cars and trucks, but observers say they don’t expect the glut to be a problem as business begins to pick up.

While automakers typically like to have a supply of vehicles for about 65 days, some companies, including General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., are carrying inventories that extend beyond 80 days.

Even Asian automakers like Toyota, who usually keep inventories low, are at higher levels than normal.

Large inventories are a concern because they can lead to production cuts, which directly affect automakers’ bottom lines.

However, beefed up incentives, rising consumer confidence and the diminishing effects of the U.S.-led war with Iraq are expected to boost sales in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.6 million units, up from 16.4 million in April and 15.6 million a year ago, according to a forecast from Ward’s Automotive Reports.

“The cars are out there, but I think they’ll get sold because there’s some catch up in the system and consumer confidence is improving,” said Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Assn.

GM, the world’s largest automaker, has an inventory of 1.25 million new cars and trucks — enough to fill orders for 82 days.

GM spokeswoman Deborah Silverman said the level was about 500,000 more than the company would prefer.

Sluggish sales to start the year have left automakers sitting on record levels of new cars and trucks. Here, cars sit in the parking lot of the Ford Wixom Assembly plant in Wixom, Mich.

“But it’s a manageable level, particularly going into the spring selling season,” she said.

GM previously announced a 10.5 percent production cut for the second quarter, and Silverman said the company has not changed its guidance.

One reason for the backlog at Ford is a buildup of the F-Series pickup, Ford’s best-selling model. Ford will have to cease production at plants in Norfolk, Va., and Kansas City, Mo., in the coming months as it prepares to launch an all-new F-Series lineup.

Ford’s inventory is near the 86-day level. In March, the world’s second-largest automaker announced a 16.6 percent production cut for the April-June period.

George Pipas, Ford’s top sales analyst, said the industry’s extra capacity at present likely could support a year-end sales level of 17 million vehicles — at the high end of most forecasts to start the year. Last year’s tally of new car and truck sales was 16.8 million.

“The problem is, we haven’t seen anything in any month this year that equates to a 17 million sales year,” Pipas said.

In trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange, Ford shares were down 8 cents to $10.06, and GM shares were up 10 cents to $35.90.