Concord, N.H. ? Exactly a year before the New Hampshire primary of 2004, the big sign on the steps of the state capitol reads: CAUTION: FALLING ICE.

That is the warning signal that greeted the three Democratic presidential hopefuls who were in town last week, getting in their early licks for the contest next Jan. 27. And it is the symbolic message to President Bush, who eked out a narrow 7,211-vote victory over Al Gore in November 2000, after being drubbed by Sen. John McCain in the Republican primary.

These last two years have not been good for residents of the Granite State. The mood here is, in some respects, as chilling as the weather that confronted Howard Dean, Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt as they made the rounds of Democratic activists.

“People are worried,” said state Senate Minority Leader Sylvia Larsen, a supporter of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. “They have hunkered down for a long winter, and they’re not sure what will come after that.”

Peter Spaulding, a Republican member of the Governor’s Council and a key McCain supporter in 2000, said, “It’s more cautious than optimistic. There’ve been enough layoffs that people are worried about their jobs. And everyone has seen his 401(k) plan shrink.”

By many measures, New Hampshire’s economy is doing better than the nation’s. It is in stronger shape than its New England neighbors. And the budget gap facing newly elected Republican Gov. Craig Benson and the Republican Legislature — about $250 million — is not nearly as large as that of many other states.

Nonetheless, the atmosphere in this state — which has exaggerated importance because of its place in the front of the primary calendar — is more reminiscent of 1992, when Bush’s father was running for a second term, than of 1996 or 2000, when high-tech and Internet companies were expanding and the economic picture was bright.

Unlike his father, who was embarrassed and weakened in 1992 by Pat Buchanan’s successful appeals to discontented Republican and independent voters, this President Bush faces no opposition in the primary. But New Hampshire’s economic nervousness is a signal to him of a problem he has to solve, not just here but across the country.

The mid-January Washington Post-ABC News poll found 53 percent of those interviewed disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy and only 43 percent approve. That is his worst rating in 21 repetitions of that question, dating back to March 2001. And it is the first time in all those surveys that negative judgments predominated.

Other parts of that poll suggest that the campaigning Democrats have fertile ground on which to work. More of those polled oppose than support Bush’s proposed elimination of taxes on corporate dividends, and by large margins they say they would prefer to see the sums Bush would use for tax cuts go into domestic programs or be used to reduce the budget deficit. By more than 2 to 1, they say that Bush’s tax package favors the rich over the middle class or all people equally.

All those negative judgments might change if there were to be a strong recovery. But at least in New Hampshire, that does not appear to be in prospect. “The New Hampshire outlook is better than Massachusetts or other surrounding states,” said Brett St. Clair, spokesman for the New Hampshire Business and Industry Association, “but we expect very slow growth in the next couple years. There is no magic bullet.”

St. Clair added, “We have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs here the last couple years, particularly in electronics and telecommunications. Mergers and acquisitions have led some of the bigger firms to cut their work force almost in half, while adding jobs in Mexico and China.”

The latest official numbers from the New Hampshire Employment Security division show unemployment climbing from 4 percent to 4.7 percent in the past year.

Ross Gittell, a University of New Hampshire economist who keeps close tabs on state trends, said, “New Hampshire really rode the high-tech boom of the 1990s. Our per capita income rose from 25th among the states to 6th. So this is a big change for us, with lots of employment being lost to China and other low-cost areas. We have had a significant decline in manufacturing, and these low-skilled people are having a hard time being re-employed. Those who find jobs are often taking lower pay … and prospects don’t look too good for the short term or the medium term.”

When Karl Rove comes to St. Anselm College for a scheduled visit in March, he will be reminded that without New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, George Bush would not be president. And in 1992, in a soft economy, Bush’s father lost New Hampshire to Bill Clinton.