Woodling: Six or seven victories possible — really

Almost everything you wanted to know about Kansas University football now that the Jayhawks have reached the end of two-a-day practices …

About a month ago, you wrote the Jayhawks could win six or seven games this season — a prediction that prompted The Sporting News to call you a “homer.” Do you still believe KU can win that many games?

I sure do. I’m sticking to my guns for a number of reasons, probably the most important being the influx of talent at key positions, particularly on defense. Other factors are a proven quarterback in Bill Whittemore, a semi-soft schedule and the Slumber Factor.

What’s the Slumber Factor?

The Royals are a good example. Nobody took them seriously after they lost 100 games last season and the Royals caught some of their early opponents napping.

Yes, but the Royals also benefited from having a bunch of early games against toadstools like Detroit and Cleveland. Is the Jayhawks’ early schedule that easy?

It’s not exactly Murderers Row. For starters, none of KU’s four nonconference foes had a winning record last season — not even Jacksonville (Ala.) State, the Div. I-AA school on the schedule.

Which of the three Div. I-A nonleague opponents had the best record?

Nevada-Las Vegas was 5-7, Northwestern 3-9 and Wyoming 2-10. Jacksonville State was 5-6. So that’s a combined record of 15-32.

OK, but then the Jayhawks have to go through the Big 12 Conference buzzsaw, and everybody knows what a rough road that will be, right?

Definitely. But you might be surprised to learn that only three of the eight conference foes Kansas will face this fall fashioned better than .500 records last year.

Really? How does that break down?

Colorado, Kansas State and Oklahoma State had winning records. Iowa State, Nebraska and Texas A&M wound up with .500 records and Missouri and Baylor had losing records. Missing from KU’s schedule are the three teams that finished with the best records in the South Division last season — Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech.

All right, I’ll grant you Kansas probably has the easiest league schedule it could possibly hope to have, but are you forgetting the Jayhawks lost to all eight of those teams last season?

I’m not saying KU will knock off Colorado, Kansas State or Oklahoma State this fall. Those three schools clearly have better personnel and KU has to play them all on the road. But for the most part the Jayhawks have three teams at home — Missouri, Baylor and Iowa State — they at least have a chance to beat. Last year the only league team Kansas really had a chance to beat was Baylor, and the Jayhawks didn’t because they blew a lead on the road.

What makes you think coach Mark Mangino and his staff have recruited enough quality players to turn things around?

First of all, I’m not saying the program will turn around. What I’m saying is it has a chance to take more than a couple of baby steps. Also, I don’t really know how good the new players are, but I doubt they’re worse than some of the players they’ll replace.

Where do you think the new faces will help the most?

Pick a position. Any position except quarterback.

Where do the Jayhawks need the most help?

Mainly on defense, but the area of most concern right now has to be the offensive line. Last year’s offensive line wasn’t very good, but at least it was senior-laden and experience helped balance the limitations. Yet practically all of those linemen completed their eligibility last season, leaving Mangino with a major rebuilding job.

What about the kicking game?

Punter Curtis Ansel has a Division I-A leg, but Division I-AA consistency. As a senior, he’ll be punting for the NFL scouts and that’s a plus. Place-kicker Johnny Beck, meanwhile, has to prove his miserable sophomore season was a anomaly.

What do you think is the key to the 2003 season?

The opener. Kansas has dropped four of its last five season openers. The Jayhawks must knock off Northwestern here a week from Saturday and inject themselves with a badly needed dose of the biggest X-factor in sports. Confidence.