Washington ? In making the case for war, the Bush administration has delivered a bill of particulars against Saddam Hussein that includes al-Qaida terrorist links yet to be demonstrated and weapons he may or may not have within reach.

Publicly, President Bush’s officials are touting reports that al-Qaida operatives have found refuge in Baghdad and that Iraq once helped them develop chemical weapons. Privately, government intelligence sources are hedging on that subject, suggesting there might be less than meets the eye.

Did Iraq really kick out U.N. weapons inspectors in 1998, as Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has said? No. “We made the decision to evacuate,” says Charles Duelfer, who was deputy chairman of the U.N. inspection agency at the time.

And might Iraq really have nuclear weapons “fairly soon,” as Vice President Dick Cheney alleges? That depends on the definition of soon, Cheney acknowledges, and no one outside Iraq really knows how close Baghdad is to that point.

“I haven’t heard any real howlers,” Duelfer said of the Bush administration’s assertions about Iraq. But some appear to have been made with more passion than proof.

Tough-sell war

Bush’s case for war probably would be a slam-dunk with Americans and an easier sell to the world if a firm relationship were established between the terrorist group that mounted the Sept. 11 attacks and the Iraqi leader he wants ousted.

It would be helped, too, by showing that Iraq’s biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs are sufficiently advanced to pose a direct threat to the United States if placed in the hands of al-Qaida or any agents out to harm America.

But Rumsfeld says all the United States can do is present the risks as best they can be determined, not nail them down beyond a reasonable doubt. “Our goal is not to go into a court of law and try to prove something to somebody,” he said.

Condoleezza Rice, President Bush’s national security adviser, took the case on Iraqi-al-Qaida links several strides forward this week by alleging that al-Qaida operatives have had a direct relationship with the Iraqi government.

“There clearly are contacts between al-Qaida and Iraq that can be documented,” she said.

She did not document them.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated the evidence for links was tenuous, based on sources of varying reliability.

The subject of Iraqi weapons is also murkier than has been presented. The U.N. chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, said last month he had no proof that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction.

Nuclear timetable

Bush warned the United Nations that Saddam could have nuclear weapons within a year of acquiring fissionable material. Cheney said: “On the nuclear question, many of us are convinced that Saddam will acquire such weapons fairly soon.”

The CIA’s own forecasts have not conveyed that much alarm.

White House case

As part of its case that Iraq is a threat that must be dealt with, and quickly:

The administration characterizes Saddam as a supporter of terrorism generally. “Iraq’s ties to terrorist networks are long-standing,” Rumsfeld told Congress.

Those ties are complex. One group the U.S. government brands as a terrorist outfit has been favored not only by Iraq but by many members of the U.S. Congress. That group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, advocates the violent overthrow of the religious government of Iran. It recently held a news conference two blocks from the White House.

In the region, Syria and Iran are widely considered to be more active sponsors of terrorism than Iraq is.

The administration alleges al-Qaida operatives, including senior figures, have been in Iraq.

But U.S. intelligence sources have said al-Qaida members are believed to be simply moving through Iraq en route to their home countries.