Economists predict decline in home refinancings

? Americans took advantage of falling mortgage rates last year and redid their home loans in droves, making 2001 the biggest-year ever for refinancing.

And although some economists think the boom in refinancing may be easing, they don’t believe it is in danger of going bust.

For the past two weeks, mortgage rates, tracked in a nationwide survey by Freddie Mac, have moved up amid increasing evidence that the economy, bruised by the recession and the terror attacks, is on the mend.

Mortgage rates are creeping back up as investors are raising their odds that the Federal Reserve may boost short-term interest rates this year.

“The huge surge, or tidal wave in refinancing, has crested and indeed there will be a much smaller wave in the spring because so many people have refinanced and those who didn’t are finding that mortgage rates, while still low, are not as attractive as they had been,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group.

For the week ending, March 15, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.08 percent, up from 6.87 percent the previous week, said Freddie Mac, the mortgage company. A year ago this time, 30-year mortgages averaged 6.96 percent.

“I think we are still in a boom, but refinancing activity is not as strong as it was in October and early November,” said Phil Colling, economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.

In early November, rates on 30-year mortgages dropped to 6.45 percent, the lowest point since Freddie Mac began conducting its survey in 1971.

Low mortgage rates fueled a record $1.1 trillion in home refinancing last year, exceeding the previous record of $750 billion set in 1998.

“This year home refinancing activity is going to be hefty but quite a bit lower than last year,” predicted Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for Wells Fargo, a major provider of residential mortgages. He believes refinancing will total $520 billion this year.