A projected decline in the combined city, county and school property tax rate for Lawrence residents is certainly cause for celebration.

But before you light the fuse of a giant firecracker in tribute, keep in mind ever-increasing property values in Douglas County will leave most taxpayers with a higher bill.

“The real question is that when you write that check for taxes, do you write a bigger check or a smaller one? Most will pay more,” said Don Cashatt, a rural Baldwin resident and president of the Douglas County Property Owners Assn.

Mill levy adjustments based on preliminary budgets: Lawrence schools, 50 mills, down 5.2; Douglas County, 27.8 mills, down 0.2; Lawrence, 25.5 mills, up 0.8.

That 4.6-mill decline in the combined property tax rate would come after a year in which both the property tax rate and property values climbed in Douglas County, hitting taxpayers with a double whammy.

A mill is $1 in property tax for every $1,000 in assessed valuation.

The county’s valuation for a typical home in Lawrence increased about 6 percent this year, meaning a $150,000 home would be valued at $159,000 for the coming budget year.

“The mill levy may stay exactly the same, but if the valuations have gone up 6 percent, they’ll see a tax increase,” said Marion Johnson, county appraiser.

And if anyone suspects valuation inflation, Johnson has news for you: On average, he said, a home in Lawrence sells for about 4 percentage points higher than its valuation.

“When it comes time to sell their property, they want their valuation high,” Johnson said. “When they pay taxes, they don’t want it that high. It’s just human nature.”

During the first six months of this year, the average price paid for a home in Lawrence was $146,000, up 6 percent from $137,600 in 2001, Johnson said.

The state’s stagnant economy and ballot-box implications of mill-levy rate increases are driving Douglas County commissioners to forge a 0.2 reduction in the levy.

The Lawrence school board expects to drop its levy by 5.2 mills, but much of that reflects a “yo-yo” effect on the levy because the district’s fiscal year doesn’t match the calendar tax year.

It’s crucial for the school board to keep in mind the challenges residents face in meeting tax obligations in the community, said Scott Morgan, school board president.

“We’re sensitive to it,” Morgan said. “If people start thinking we’re clueless and have no sensitivity to who’s paying the bills here, the kids are going to end up getting the short end of the stick some day.”

Lawrence city commissioners are expected to adopt a 0.8-mill increase in property tax rates.

“I know people that would prefer we do nothing at all,” Mayor Sue Hack said of the city’s levy. “But we also have to balance that with the need for services in the community.”

The complete property tax picture will be clarified as the three governing bodies put finishing touches on new budgets in July or August.

Cashatt said the trio of taxing entities should use an annual inflation index as a guide for setting ceilings of tax adjustment.

“If the taxes keep climbing up faster than inflation, ultimately we’ll have a problem,” he said. “It’s time for government bodies to say no to increases beyond inflation.”