Washington — An unusual set of political issues is in the air this January: a threat to domestic security, an overseas war with multiple fronts, a major civil-liberties debate about order and freedom, an emerging business scandal involving a company with ties to dozens of officials, congressional fights over health, welfare, spending and taxes all in a year where population swings and reapportionment have created new political districts and power balances across the country.
But an unusual set of political circumstances may be conspiring to render all these issues and frictions irrelevant in the November election.
Indeed, if the presidential election of 2000 was, as the late-night cabaret comedians suggested, an election about nothing because so little was at stake in a period of peace and prosperity, the midterm contests of 2002 may be elections about nothing because, in a time of war and recession, so much is at stake.
It's not because the public is reluctant to confront difficult issues in difficult times; Americans fought over foreign policy at the beginning of the Korean conflict in 1950 and amid hostilities in Vietnam in 1968 and 1972, while equally bitter fights occurred during the recession of 1982.
But in 2002, most of the contentious national issues may be meaningless in the fall election as campaigns that both parties hope to conduct on a national level are transformed into a series of local contests, more about personality than ideology.
Here are the national issues of January that may become the forgotten issues of November:
l The tax cut. Many Democrats believe that Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts made it safe for other party members to take a strong position against President Bush's economic policies when he argued last week that the nation forgo what he called "a future tax cut for the wealthiest" by postponing the tax decreases that are to take effect in 2004. In an ordinary year, that might be true. But most of the moderate Democrats who face difficult re-election fights this fall can't make that argument. They voted for the Bush plan.
l Enron's entrails. The conventional wisdom is that the Enron bankruptcy and the questionable accounting and management decisions that were made in the corporation's final days are a blow to Republicans, especially because of the ties that President Bush and Vice President Cheney have with the energy industry. In ordinary circumstances, that might be true. But Enron, while favoring Republicans in its contribution patterns, spread money among Democrats as well. (Among those returning Enron contributions: Sens. Jean Carnahan of Missouri, Max Baucus of Montana and Tim Johnson of South Dakota, all Democrats facing tough re-election battles.) That transforms the issue from a Republican problem to a Washington problem and in this atmosphere, an anti-Washington campaign doesn't have the appeal it did when so little was at stake at home and around the globe.
l Welfare. Since the Great Society three decades ago, welfare has provided a surefire political issue, with utterly predictable divisions and rhetoric (Democrats talking about civic compassion, Republicans about personal responsibility). This year's debate over reauthorization of the 1996 welfare bill had the potential of being one of the few ideological battles of the age; for years Democrats have been waiting for welfare recipients to reach their benefit limits, which many of them are approaching now. Republicans, however, may hold the trump card: falling caseloads. The result may be a compromise an extension of unemployment benefits, passed amid arguments that the terror attacks of the fall worsened the employment prospects of the spring that captures the spirit of responsibility without addressing long-term needs of the unemployed.
l Health. Congressional conferees are expected to meet soon to address major differences over the Patients' Bill of Rights. Already the administration is moving to blur distinctions over health policy; the White House, grabbing the inoculating word of the age, is speaking of health "security." Ordinarily health care might be an important issue in a heavily contested contest like the Iowa senate fight, where a health firebrand like Sen. Tom Harkin faces a tough re-election battle. But his opponent is GOP Rep. Greg Ganske, whose name is on the health bill most Democrats support.
l The regulatory state. Democrats are eyeing administration decisions on the environment and worker safety, hoping they might provide a wedge for candidates to argue that the GOP's anti-Washington stance is out of synch with a voting public that's more supportive of government than it has been in decades. Ordinarily that might be true, but the Enron scandal makes it all but certain that the leading voices for government scrutiny of pensions and 401(k)s may be Republicans. The first politician to call for greater strictures on these retirement instruments: President Bush.
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