Washington — Lawmakers this week return to Capitol Hill for what is expected to be a bruising legislative session dominated not only by critical issues such as the sluggish economy and the war on terrorism but also the upcoming November midterm elections.
The partisan split in both the House and Senate is so narrow that the balance of power could be upended if just a few seats change hands. The results will be especially important to President Bush and his plans to advance a legislative agenda during the second half of his four-year term.
"Polls of voting intention in competitive races show either chamber could go either way," said Nicol Rae, a political scientist at Florida International University in Miami. "They could both go Democratic or both go Republican. It's really that tight."
As a result, the legislative session is expected to be especially fractious as members of both parties scramble to impress voters with their stands on the economy, federal spending and homeland security. Thirty-four Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election.
"What the spring session of Congress is devoted to is shaping issues for the campaign," said Byron Shafer, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin. "Republicans need to tell you that Democrats denied you the tax cut, and Democrats need to tell you that Republicans denied you jobless benefits."
Lawmakers are also furiously working to distance themselves from the collapse of Enron. More than a dozen already have vowed to give campaign contributions from the energy trading company to charity. Others are leaping on the investigation or calling for hearings into employee retirement accounts.
Sept. 11 effect unknown
The biggest unknown is the effect of the Sept. 11 attacks on America, the subsequent war on terrorism and Bush's sustained popularity.
"Sept. 11th is a big enough event to have changed the equation," said Charles Cook, a nonpartisan political analyst who said he believed Democrats were poised to make large gains before the terrorist attacks. "It's going to be a very close call."
The election is complex, Cook said, because the economy is in a recession, but Bush's approval ratings have remained unusually high. A poor economy usually benefits Democrats, but polls show many voters are blaming the terrorist attacks rather than Republicans for the sluggish financial situation.
"It's not a Bush deficit, it's a bin Laden deficit," Cook said. "Polls are pretty clear people are not blaming Bush for this recession."
Redistricting issues
The picture is also blurred by the congressional redistricting that takes place every decade. Seventeen states including Kansas have yet to complete reapportionment, adding to the uncertainty for incumbents and challengers.
Historically, the party of the president has suffered losses in the House of Representatives during 32 of the last 34 midterm elections dating to the Civil War.
Even in times of war, when voters have rallied around the president, they have simultaneously removed his party from control of the House.
For example, in 1918, as World War I was coming to an end, President Woodrow Wilson, a Democrat, lost control of both the House and the Senate to Republicans. During World War II, President Franklin D. Roosevelt watched in 1942 as Democrats lost 45 House seats.
"What it shows is that politics goes on," said Adam Sheingate, a political science professor at Johns Hopkins University. "And we just don't know where we'll be 10, 11 months from now."
GOP banks on Bush
Nevertheless, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the group that works to elect Republicans to the House, hopes to capitalize on voters' positive feelings toward the president and boost the GOP's six-seat margin.
"Part of every congressional campaign will be, 'Who's going to go to Washington to help President Bush?" said Steve Schmidt, the group's communications director. "That's going to be a decision voters are going to have to make."
Democrats argue that voters will not make up their minds based on their feelings for Bush.
"It's not going to be a referendum on his presidency, it's not going to be a referendum on who runs the Senate," said Jim Jordan, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "These races are going to turn on the qualities of the individual candidates and the issues."
Those issues, Jordan contends, are less likely to be about the war on terrorism and more likely to center on domestic concerns such as the economy and health care.
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