Without being able to see into the future, it's difficult to know whether the sale of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas will benefit subscribers.
Kansas Insurance Commissioner Kathleen Sebelius could use a reliable crystal ball about now.
She and every Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas subscriber probably would like to look into the future and see whether the state would benefit by allowing Blue Cross of Kansas to be bought out by Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield. Kansas subscribers have had an opportunity to vote on the sale, but the final decision will be made by Sebelius, who is in the middle of three days of administrative hearings on the matter.
A number of Kansans have been vocal in their opposition to the sale. They include doctors, hospitals, nurses and social service providers. At its meeting tonight, the Lawrence City Commission is expected to go on record as opposing the sale. Most of the opponents seem to be operating on the premise "if it's not broken, don't fix it." They say they have gotten good service from Blue Cross of Kansas, and they want to keep it that way.
That's a good reason, but (this is where the crystal ball would be handy) who's to say whether Blue Cross will be able to maintain its high quality service and relatively low rates in the future? Opponents fear that, if the sale to Anthem goes through, rates will go up and service will decline. Proponents say that rates probably will rise with or without the sale. They hope the larger Anthem would be in a better position to control costs by exercising "economies of scale" in administration and purchasing.
As Sebelius well knows, it's not a sure thing either way. If she blocks the sale, there may be short-term gains, not the least of which would be a benefit to her probable campaign for the governor's office. But 10 years down the road, what will Kansans have? A Blue Cross of Kansas that charges rates as high as or higher than Anthem's and no longer is as viable a company for Anthem or someone else to purchase?
If the sale is allowed to go through, there will be a short-term financial gain for Blue Cross subscribers, who will benefit from the sale, and maybe a short-term political loss for Sebelius. The long-term impact is uncertain. Whichever way the decision goes, Kansans are likely to face higher insurance costs and believe they would have been better off with the other company.
A decade from now, this decision may be entirely academic because high health care and health insurance costs have forced major changes in the nation's health care system. Some national observers have pointed out that rising insurance costs and the resulting rise in the number of uninsured Americans is placing such a high burden on the nation that a new system is inevitable.
But that won't help Sebelius now. Whether or not to approve the sale of Blue Cross of Kansas is a tough call. Too bad she doesn't have that crystal ball.
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