Quartzsite, Ariz. — It's late fall, and the two-lane highway that snakes south from Lake Havasu City through miles of desolate, rolling desert should be choked with a convoy of recreational vehicles.
Every year thousands of snowbirds winter refugees from colder northern states usually pack up their gear and head for dozens of RV parks in the tiny Colorado River towns on the California-Arizona state line. Most of them have one thing on their mind.
"Sunshine. Oh, the sunshine," said 58-year-old Darlene Manley, who came to Quartzsite from La Pine, Ore., with her husband. "Even on the few cold days the sun is shining."
The weather is cooperating again this year, warm and dry with plenty of sunshine, but many of the snowbirds have yet to follow.
Resort living
Some residents of the dusty, southwest Arizona towns who make their money catering to the RV crowd are afraid a worsening economy and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks will keep seasonal visitors at home.
"This town's getting dead," said J.J. Jackson, a prospecting supplier in Quartzsite. "It's really sad to see."
Dressed in cowboy hat, boots, tight jeans and a jacket decorated with bold, American Indian designs, the 65-year-old pops a tiny .22-caliber gun from his belt buckle and brandishes it at the town's near-deserted main street.
"I could take this little gun and shoot down this street and not hit a soul," he said. "What you see now there should be three times as many vendors and customers as there are."
North of Quartzsite in Parker, 82-year-old Jeanne Branson owns an RV park and motel. Similar resorts line both sides of the California and Arizona banks of the Colorado River.
"I've been here 60 years, and I've never seen so few people traveling," she said.
Branson's resort has palm trees, manicured green grass, flower gardens and a view of the creased desert hills that roll alongside the blue-green river. What's missing this year are the RVs. Branson said only half of the 200 RV and mobile home spaces along her resort's mile of waterfront are occupied.
Pattern of decline
"Normally this place would be full," she said. "You'd be turning people away, calling other places to handle the overflow. This is one of the most beautiful falls we've ever had, and there's no one here to enjoy it."
Stephen Happel, an economics professor at Arizona State University's business college, monitors the yearly migration of winter visitors. He said that the sluggish economy and the Sept. 11 attacks might have scared away some visitors.
But if the number of snowbirds drops this year, it would be following a longer pattern of decline.
Last year, Happel found that the statewide snowbird population in RV parks was about 155,000 at the height of the season. While the number was only slightly lower than the year before, it was the fourth consecutive year of decline.
But even with recent world events, Happel said he couldn't imagine that snowbirds would stay away from the state's RV parks all winter.
After Christmas?
"RV parks are these people's social networks. Their friends are here, and they look forward to coming down every year," he said. "Maybe the elderly crowd is simply waiting for the cold to set in."
The season runs roughly from October to April.
With falling gas prices, northern snow, and a warm Arizona winter, he said he expects snowbirds to show up after Christmas. "This is a crowd that's pretty footloose and fancy free," he said.
In Parker, though, Branson said she talked to people nearly every day who were canceling their reservations. She worried that she might have to fire some of her staff.
"It's a shame," she said. "But if you can't meet your payroll, you've got to do something. This could be a very sad year."
Stan Johnson said business has been bad at the Desert Dog Rancho RV park in Quartzsite, with only about 70 percent of his 55 RV spaces full.
"Of course we always complain in the fall, and then before we know it, there's a big snow up north and they're here in hordes," said Johnson, the manager and part-owner. "Once they've had a touch of the winter, they usually come on down."
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