Rural Lawrence resident Martha Roberts eked out a narrow victory in the Journal-World's first "Predict the Dow" contest.
Last month Roberts predicted that the Dow Jones industrials would close 2001 at 10,026.34. Her forecast landed within five points of the actual finishing level of 10,021.50, and nudged out the second-place entry by two-thirds of a point.
When the contest was launched Dec. 9, the Dow stood at 10,049.46. A week later and after 18 prognosticators met the contest deadline the Dow had fallen to 9,811.15.
The reasoning behind Roberts' entry: "I feel there will be some buying at the end of the year, getting ready for next year," she said.
For her winning forecast, Roberts earns a free lunch at a Lawrence restaurant of her choice with Mark Fagan, Journal-World business editor.
Contest entries ranged from a high of 11,084 to a low of 9,493. Nine entries came in below the year's close of 10,021.50, while nine ended up above that level.
Taken together, the 18 entries would have produced an average forecast of 10,041.88.
Janet Mosser, who finished second in the contest with a guess of 10,027, said she didn't have any idea where the Dow would end 2002.
"I just hope it goes up," she said.
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