Washington ? Democrats want a fresh face. That’s the message Al Gore heard as he traveled the country and took soundings for a possible presidential race. Even though he won more votes than anybody except Ronald Reagan in 1984, there was no groundswell for a Bush-Gore rematch. It’s too early, and the field is too scrambled to pronounce with any certainty which candidate will move into the frontrunner position that Gore commanded, but former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is about to get his moment in the sun. A medical doctor who greatly expanded health care coverage during his 10 years in the governor’s office, Dean is following in the footsteps of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter as a progressive chief executive with a proven record of accomplishment.

If the election were today, George W. Bush would handily win a second term. But looming uncertainties about a war with Iraq, a weakened economy and the GOP’s commitment to a broadly tolerant party — as a result of Sen. Trent Lott’s remarks at Sen. Strom Thurmond’s birthday party — provide Democrats an opening. If they can find a candidate with a clear message who can unify Democrats and also appeal to Independents, the outcome of an election two years from now could turn in their favor. Dean signaled his intention to run a year ago and was the first in the field to file the necessary papers to form an exploratory committee. He didn’t hesitate, and he didn’t engage in public hand-wringing about how a run might affect his family life. He just did it, which suggests he has the determination to go the distance.

In every race, a candidate emerges who the press falls in love with, and Dean could get the valentine this time around. He’s substantive; he has the courage of his convictions; and he has no real baggage. He alone among the potential Democratic candidates opposed Bush’s war resolution and said he would have voted against it if he had been in Congress. He favors universal health coverage, which Democrats have treated like the third rail since Hillary Clinton stumbled on the issue.

No Northern Democrat has won the White House since Massachusetts’ John F. Kennedy in 1960, but Dean can argue he’s different. He has a mix of positions that make him harder to pigeonhole as a conventional liberal. Left-wing Democrats will like that he signed a bill legalizing civil unions, but conservative voters will appreciate his membership in the NRA. He won’t pledge to overturn gun control laws, but neither will he provoke animosity from rural Democrats who think the party elites want to take away their rights.

Dean’s background is not unlike Bush’s. He comes from a monied, blue-blood family in Long Island, N.Y., and was a few years behind Bush at Yale. He did his medical residency in Vermont and stayed to practice there with his wife, who is also a physician. Politics was his avocation, and he served in the state legislature and then, in 1987, was elected lieutenant governor. When the sitting governor died in office in 1991, Dean took over, stepping down this fall to devote all of his time to running for president. He has visited Iowa 16 times, New Hampshire 20 times and South Carolina, which holds an early primary, five times.

Because he comes from a small state and is little known, Dean lags far behind Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the frontrunner so far in name recognition and fund raising. But if Dean shows well in Iowa and beats Kerry in New Hampshire, he would go into South Carolina with momentum. It’s hard to imagine Kerry, who is easily stereotyped as a Massachusetts liberal, carrying a single southern or border state, but Dean might. Democrats want a fresh face, but they also want one that’s electable.

Prediction: Dean is going to be a major contender.