Washington — China continues to loom as America's primary concern, and our sources explain why. President John F. Kennedy said that Soviet Premier Nikita Krushchev's Wars of Liberation speech was the blueprint for communist expansion. Through the training and equipping of surrogates, Soviet and Chinese communists sought to create guerrilla movements worldwide. To counter this, JFK sought to help our allies help themselves. It did not work in Vietnam. It did work in Afghanistan. But behind our aid was our force in the form of a nuclear shield, a massive navy, command of the air, and a state-of-the-art army.
And that navy in the form of the U.S. 7th Fleet stands between mainland China and Taiwan. Yet, the Kennedy doctrine has been reversed there. Instead of helping Taiwan defend itself, America has left the island nation virtually defenseless. Taiwan, sources tell us, needs everything: radar, planes, anti-missile defenses, etc.
Meanwhile, China continues its military buildup with increasingly sophisticated missiles and a new generation of Russian-made fighters equipped with the latest air-to-air missiles. In fact, America is on the verge of ignoring, if not abrogating, its treaty commitments to Taiwan. Under Chinese pressure, American military delegations now bypass Taiwan and interact exclusively with China. Having received most-favored-nation trade status, China became the recipient of an American-generated economic boom a boom that finances the Chinese military. The boom, however, is showing major cracks, which could increase the power of Chinese militarists.
It is all a matter of money and intimidation. Billions are at stake between America and its communist Chinese trading partner. Intimidation is at play because Chinese missiles now effectively control the Strait of Formosa, which separates Taiwan from China. The U.S. 7th Fleet is extremely vulnerable to those land-based missiles to such a degree that aircraft carriers the backbones of the fleet have become nothing more than big targets in the confined spaces of the strait.
It is reminiscent of Napoleon, who needed control of the sea in 1805, and of Hitler, who needed control of the air in 1940, before either of them could cross the 22-mile wide English Channel to launch an invasion of Great Britain. Neither of them attained that control, but the Chinese have done so in the 100-mile-wide Formosa Strait.
Just as intimidation won for Hitler the bloodless conquest of Czechoslovakia and Austria, China, we predict, will conquer Taiwan. After all, the Chinese will say, we took over Hong Kong, and it continues to thrive. Why would the situation in Taiwan be any different? Unsaid will be the fact that China remains a communist dictatorship capable of clamping down Tianamen Square-style whenever it chooses. Unsaid will be an acknowledgment that China remains an expansionist nation that continues to threaten its neighbors, from India to The Philippines.
Because the United States adopted a one-China policy, we would be hard-pressed to station ground troops in Taiwan as we have in South Korea, where they act as a trip-wire deterrent to North Korean aggression. This leaves only the 7th Fleet and a massive JFK-style military equipment buildup. In the case of the fleet, it means operating outside of the strait but within supporting distance of Taiwan. But equipment is the real key. Taiwan could help itself if America inundates it with sophisticated weaponry sufficient to make China think twice an action America is unlikely to take in the present political environment of our international retrenchment.
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