As we warned, the retreat has begun. President George W. Bush is pulling America back from the world stage.
He appears to be set upon an exit strategy from our ongoing duel with Iraq. Sanctions are about to be reduced, which effectively means ended. Bush's cover was the recent muscle-flexing air attack on Iraq's command-and-control centers.
China was admonished for selling weapons and weapons technology to Iraq, but the Chinese responded that if they had done so, they had not meant it. And, what's more, they wouldn't do it anymore. That was all the cover Bush needed. He said, fine.
Great Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair met with the president and announced his support for an all-European rapid-reaction military force. The fact that such a force would essentially replace NATO seems to have been lost on Bush, however, and he said, fine. After all, the reasoning goes, why not let the Europeans police Europe. The problem is that the reasoning is eerily reminiscent of the post-World War I era when the Europeans proved themselves capable only of aggression (Germany and Italy) or appeasement (everyone else).
Macedonia is on the verge of erupting into another of those Balkan conflagrations, but Bush is on record opposing the air campaign against Serbia to save Kosovo. Why would he view Macedonia in a better light? Israel offered the Palestinians virtually all of the West Bank, Gaza and part of Jerusalem, and Yasser Arafat turned it down. Now Israel has turned to the right with hardliner Ariel Sharon. Bush's solution? Blame everybody. It's the old "there's two sides to every story" form of negotiation. But what more does he expect Israel to offer? Of course Palestinian rights and dreams need to be protected, just as Israeli security does. But Bush needs to make choices. He needs to point to wrongs when wrongs are committed. He cannot resolve the issue by claiming that everyone is wrong alike.
Turkey, one of America's staunchest allies, is facing economic crises with the collapse of its currency. But Bush, the free-market conservative, is relying upon the invisible hand of the market to set it all right. And free markets do work. It's just that every now and then they need a little help to maintain order.
The list goes on, including Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Sudan and many others. And once the word is out that America is in retreat, long-smoldering grievances will burst into flame as one country after another turns to terror and war to solve its problems.
The Pax Romana (the Peace of Rome) lasted 200 years, and when it ended, the world descended into the Dark Ages. The Pax Americana, beginning with the end of World War II, has lasted just over half a century, and Bush unwittingly may be bringing it to a close. If he does, will another Dark Ages result? Will another power take the helm, or will the world fracture into multi-power hegemonies? Some may say that America is the only superpower, and that is not going to change. But a superpower that fails to assert its power only paves the way for a descent into international anarchy.
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