Archive for Friday, November 1, 1996


November 1, 1996


A new Journal-World poll shows Bob Dole's lead in Kansas hasn't changed much in a month.

Going into the final week before the election, a new Journal-World poll shows Bob Dole has a 10-point lead in Kansas over President Bill Clinton.

But his lead should be at least 15 percent in his home state -- and indicate a gloomy election day for the Kansas Republican, say the pollster.

"It means your hometown guy is going to be hating life on Tuesday," said Del Ali, vice president of Mason-Dixon Political Media Research Inc., Washington, D.C., which conducted the poll for the J-W.

The poll, which surveyed 812 likely voters by telephone Sunday and Monday, showed Dole had 49 percent, Clinton 39 percent, Perot 6 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

"Dole's going to win in Kansas, but those are bad numbers... It should be more like 58-33," Ali said. Clinton leads Dole 55 percent to 34 percent in his home state of Arkansas.

"The Kansas numbers show the weakness of Dole's support and the weakness of his whole campaign. It's been weak and very uninspiring," Ali said.

Ali said his polls of other states show a tight race between Dole and Clinton in Tennessee. However, other states Dole had hoped to carry, such as Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and California "are done deals for Clinton," Ali said.

Ali predicted Clinton getting about 400 of the 538 electoral college votes and 48 percent to 49 percent of the popular vote on Tuesday.

Told that Dole plans a 96-hour non-stop campaign blitz starting today, Ali said there was probably only one thing Dole could do to pull out the election.

"Pray," he said.

"I'm sure he will," laughed Kim Wells, Dole's campaign chairman in Kansas.

"He's obviously behind and it's going to be difficult," Wells said. "It's clearly a challenge."

Wells said the reason the Kansas poll numbers haven't changed substantially since September was because Dole's campaign has been concentrating on other states.

"There has not been a lot of activity in Kansas," Wells said.

Dole has spent a few thousand dollars on yard signs and no money on television in Kansas, Wells said.

"I have said all along that Dole would have a double-digit victory in Kansas," Wells said. "Dole will be somewhere in the 50s."

The J-W poll numbers, which have a 3.5 percent margin of error, show that in Kansas, Dole's lead dropped slightly since September, when he led Clinton 51 percent to 39 percent.

The poll shows Dole leads among both men and women voters. The former Kansas senator now has a 45 percent to 41 percent lead with women and a 53 percent to 37 percent lead among men. Dole has also secured his Republican base, capturing 76 percent of the GOP voters, according to the poll.

The poll also showed Dole's popularity was statistically unchanged since September. Statewide, 47 percent have a favorable opinion (down from 49 percent in September), while 35 percent continue to have an unfavorable view, down from 38 percent in September.

Clinton's popularity ratings haven't changed in a month. Statewide, 36 percent have a favorable opinion of the president, when 45 percent have an unfavorable opinion.

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